Canada will be short 3.5M homes by 2030 on current building pace: CMHC

Canada’s current pace of homebuilding will see the country face a gap of 3.5 million units by 2030, falling well short of the bar for housing affordability, according to a new report.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) published its latest analysis on Canada’s housing stock challenges Thursday.

The agency projects that Canada will add an additional 2.1 million housing units between 2021 and 2030, hitting a total stock of 19 million homes nationally.

But that will be well short of enough units to make housing affordable for all Canadians, the CMHC said.

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It projects Canada will need well over 22 million units by that time to put affordable roofs over the heads of the growing population.

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“Canada’s approach to housing supply needs to be rethought,” the report states.

“The evidence has been mounting for many years that the housing supply system is broken in many parts of Canada.”

The CMHC notes, however, that supply is only one factor affecting affordability, and ramping up the pace of building will not solve the problem on its own. Other inputs not accounted for in the report include government policies affecting demand and the longevity of work-from-home trends post-pandemic.

Two-thirds of the housing gap will be felt in Ontario and British Columbia, the report finds. Quebec is also mentioned as needing a bump in supply over the coming decade.

The CMHC also notes that ramping up construction is not the only way to augment supply. With a growing proportion of elderly households in Canada, embracing multi-generational homes would also ease demand pressures.

More to come.

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B.C. housing inventory lacking supply of affordable homes – Mar 23, 2022

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