What Taleb Gets Wrong – and Right – About Bitcoin

Over the last two years, progress in the crypto-economy has been about as expected, without major breakthroughs or setbacks. It is the traditional financial system that has been upended by the pandemic, lockdowns, supply chain issues, aggressive fiscal and loose monetary policies, political dysfunction and threats of war. Therefore, it seems to me that volatility in the number of dollars people will pay for Bitcoin has more to do with uncertainty about the long-term value of dollars than reappraisals of the prospects for the crypto-economic sector. When Bitcoin’s price falls in terms of dollars it doesn’t say much about whether Bitcoin is cheap or expensive, but it does suggest people are placing more faith in dollars, perhaps due to anticipated Fed monetary policy tightening, reduced expectations for government spending, and declining pandemic and war fears. 

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