A fifth tropical storm is forming in the Atlantic. Here’s its most likely path.

A disturbance forecasters have been watching in the Atlantic will likely become a tropical storm this week and bring heavy rain and strong gusty winds to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, where tropical storm watches are in effect.

The National Hurricane Center said Monday the system likely will become a tropical depression by early Tuesday, strengthen into a tropical storm by Tuesday afternoon and reach hurricane strength early Thursday.

If it becomes the fifth named storm of the season, it would be Ernesto.

Could Ernesto affect North Carolina?

On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center said the system was more than 800 miles east-southeast of Puerto Rico and moving west at around 26 mph. Forecasters said it would begin moving west-northwest by midweek but that by early Friday, it should turn to the northeast.

That path would keep it out to sea, well away from the U.S. coast.

Most international computer models agree the storm will stay offshore, though two outliers show it going into the Gulf of Mexico and one has it tracking close to the east coast of Florida and moving north.

If the storm follows the Hurricane Center’s forecast it would have little to no impact on North Carolina.

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