Democrat Angela Alsobrooks leads Republican Larry Hogan by 5 percentage points in Maryland’s U.S. Senate race while still remaining unknown to a third of likely voters, a new statewide poll found.
Hogan maintains the kind of broad popularity that he enjoyed during his two terms as governor, and while a fifth of Democrats say they will vote for him, he’d need to pull in a larger share of them in a state packed with Democrats to win in November, according to poll director Patrick Gonzales.
“For a Republican to win statewide in Maryland it always comes down to basic mathematics,” Gonzales wrote in a statement with the results of his statewide poll. “Can Hogan snatch away 30% of the Democratic vote to secure victory on November 5th?”
The poll of 820 likely voters was conducted Aug. 24 through Aug. 30 by the Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media Services. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
It surveyed voters across Maryland just after the Democratic National Convention, where Alsobrooks had a primetime speaking slot as a close ally of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
It follows another recent poll of voters mostly aged 50 or more by Impact Research and Fabrizio Ward that found the race to be a dead heat in that age group, which is more likely to vote, with similar signs that Hogan would need to sustain his performance as Alsobrooks becomes more known to voters through ads over the final two months of the race.
According to the Gonzales poll, 40% of voters view the Democratic Prince George’s County executive favorably while 34% do not recognize her name.
A decade after Hogan first became governor, nearly everyone has an opinion of him. Half of all voters view him favorably while 19% view him unfavorably and 29% are neutral. His appeal is similar among Democrats, Republicans and independents, or when broken down by race and gender, according to the poll.
In the head-to-head matchup, Alsobrooks leads 46% to 41% with 11% undecided, the poll found.
About 82% of Republicans said they would back Hogan, which is 2 percentage points higher than former Republican President Donald Trump among Maryland Republicans surveyed in the same poll for the presidential race.
Hogan also leads among independent voters, 41% to 31%. His 21% support from Democrats is “not bad,” though Hogan would need to perform about 10 percentage points higher among Democrats to win, Gonzales said.
Hogan is aiming to become the first Maryland Republican elected to the U.S. Senate since 1980, and the outcome of the race could determine which party holds the majority in the narrowly divided Senate.
The winner will succeed retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin.
Amanda Smith is a dedicated U.S. correspondent with a passion for uncovering the stories that shape the nation. With a background in political science, she provides in-depth analysis and insightful commentary on domestic affairs, ensuring readers are well-informed about the latest developments across the United States.
