The Denver Nuggets will face the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday at Wells Fargo Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Sixers are one-point spread favorites and the game total is 231 points.
Denver (28-13 SU, 18-23 ATS, and 16-24-1 O/U) beat Indiana 117-109 in its last game. The Nuggets are 11-9 SU and 7-13 ATS on the road this season.
Philadelphia (24-13 SU, 24-13 ATS, and 21-15-1 O/U) beat Houston 124-115 in its most recent game. The Sixers are 14-6 both SU and ATS at home.
Injury Report
Nuggets: SG Julian Strawther (knee) is out.
76ers: SF Robert Covington (knee) and PG DeAnthony Melton (back) are out. PG Jaden Springer (ankle), PF Kenneth Lofton Jr. (shoulder), and C Mo Bamba (knee) are questionable.
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Denver averages nearly 30 assists per game
Denver scores 116.2 points per game (13th) on 49.8 percent shooting (4th), including 37.8 percent from three-point range (9th). It converts 75.1 percent of its free-throw attempts (28th) and averages 43.8 rebounds (15th), 29.7 assists (2nd), and 12.7 turnovers (5th) per game.
The Nuggets give up 111.0 points per game (3rd), and their opponents shoot 46.5 percent (10th), including 36.2 percent from beyond the arc (13th), with 42.1 rebounds per game (7th). Denver averages 5.3 blocks (15th), 7.2 steals (20th), and 19.0 fouls (8th).
The Nuggets rank 5th in offensive rating, 12th in defensive rating, and 29th in pace (schedule-adjusted), per Dunks and Threes.
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Philly takes great care of the ball
The 76ers score 119.8 points per game (6th) and shoot 47.4 percent (14th), including 37.1 percent from long distance (12th). They convert 84.0 percent of their free throws (1st) and average 43.9 rebounds (13th), 25.5 assists (22nd), and 12.6 turnovers (3rd).
Philly gives up 111.6 points per game (5th), and its opponents shoot 46.2 percent (7th), including 33.7 percent from beyond the arc (1st), with 44.0 rebounds per game (18th). The 76ers average 6.2 blocks (5th), 9.2 steals (1st), and 20.7 fouls (26th).
Philadelphia ranks 8th in offensive rating, 4th in defensive rating, and 12th in pace (schedule-adjusted), per Dunks and Threes.
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Best Bets for this Game
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Denver took care of business against the Tyrese Hailburton-less Pacers on Sunday, as Nikola Jokic paced the Nuggets with 25 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists. The home team was tough to defend (64.8 FG%), especially in the paint (64 points). The Nuggets were careless with the basketball (22 turnovers), though, helping Indiana stay in the game.
Philadelphia easily defeated Houston on Monday, as Joel Embiid led the 76ers with a 41-point-10 rebound double-double. The home team shot 48.2 percent from the field, including 15-for-31 from three-point range, and assisted on 25 of their 40 made field goals. The Rockets outscored the Sixers 60-34 in the paint but missed 13 free throws and 19 threes.
I’ll wager on the Sixers to cover at home tomorrow night against the defending champions. Philly’s defense will get a few crucial stops down the stretch, helping it pull away. The home team ranks 1st in three-point defense, 1st in steals, 3rd in opponent eFG%, and 5th in blocks. Denver found a way to pull out wins against New Orleans and Indiana in its last two games, but won’t feel the love in the city of Brotherly Love.
Philly is 14-6 SU and ATS at home and Denver is 7-13 ATS on the road this season. I’ll bet those trends are relevant on Tuesday night.
Prediction: Philadelphia -1
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The under will cash in Tuesday’s Denver-Philadelphia game.
The Nuggets have faced three formidable opponents in their last three games and will feel the effects of those challenges on the road tomorrow. The Sixers’ perimeter defense is for real, and Embiid will do a fairly good job at containing Jokic in a matchup between MVPs. Denver’s poor free-throw shooting (75.1%) will haunt it on the road, especially in the fourth quarter.
The Nuggets are tough to score on at the rim (4th in opponent rim %), which will make it challenging for the Sixers (26th in rim %) to pull away with the lead. Philadelphia will need to be efficient from beyond the arc to exceed their season scoring average. I’m not betting on them breaking out from deep tomorrow in a competitive game against the defending champs.
Prediction: Under 231
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