National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring two areas for possible tropical development this week, including one off Florida’s east coast that currently has low odds for formation.
In its Sunday afternoon tropics update, the hurricane center said an area of low pressure is forecast to develop by mid week northeast of the central Bahamas.
“Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward,” Senior Hurricane Specialist Jack Beven wrote in the update. The NHC placed odds of a tropical depression forming at near zero over the next 48 hours and 30% over the next seven days.
Another area the NHC is monitoring is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where an area of disturbed weather has formed over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
“A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward,” Beven said.
The hurricane center gives the system a 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 70% of developing in the next seven days as of 2 p.m. on Sunday.
“Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America,” Beven said. “These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.”
While many hurricane season forecasts have noted that conditions appear favorable for a possibly history season for number of storms that could form, there may be some good news – albeit temporary.
The hurricane center’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch posted on X, formerly Twitter, that some Saharan dust is headed our way.
“An outbreak of Saharan dust is moving westward across the #atlanticocean, suppressing the shower & t’storm activity,” the social media post said. “These outbreaks usually peak from late June to early August & quickly diminish by mid August.”
Amanda Smith is a dedicated U.S. correspondent with a passion for uncovering the stories that shape the nation. With a background in political science, she provides in-depth analysis and insightful commentary on domestic affairs, ensuring readers are well-informed about the latest developments across the United States.
