Annual inflation rate cools to 3.3% but remains well above Federal Reserve’s target
The government has released new inflation data showing a slight cooling of the annual rate, as wages are keeping up with inflation.
Scripps News
If you’re hoping for an interest rate cut from the Fed today, don’t hold your breath.
Chances of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve are slim to none, forecasters say, when the panel announces its interest-rate decision at the close of a two-day meeting.
That means the Fed’s benchmark interest rate will likely remain in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it has sat for nearly a year, at a 23-year high.
Analysts had once expected several rate cuts in 2024, but nagging inflation stayed the Fed’s hand. Today, forecasters predict no rate cut before fall.
Here’s what to expect:
- The Federal Reserve will make an interest-rate announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern Time: probably no change to the benchmark rate.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
- Absent a rate cut, the market will parse Powell’s words for any clue of when the Fed might act.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. Fed chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30.
Powell will likely talk about the decision and shed light on how the central bank views the overall economy. The market will look for clues in Powell’s remarks to predict what rate actions the Fed might take over the rest of the year.
Last week, the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada each lowered their key rates by a quarter point.
Do those moves put the Fed under pressure to cut rates in the US?
“Publicly, the Fed has to say there’s no pressure, but privately, it might be a consideration,” said Stephen Bittel, founder and chairman of Terranova Corporation, noting that businesses may head abroad to borrow at a cheaper rate.
But to safeguard consumer purchasing power, experts say, the Fed needs to stay focused on lowering inflation.
“The average person is going through hell,” said David Lynd, chief executive at real estate company The Lynd Company. “Inflation is ravaging the consumer. They’re out of money, used up their credit cards, borrowing from mom and dad. There’s not a lot left with inflation not going down.”
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kasharki says consumers “viscerally hate high inflation” and prefer recession to inflation. “High inflation affects everybody. There’s no one I can lean on for help because everyone in my network is experiencing the same thing I’m experiencing.”
And there’s still a risk that high inflation could persist. “The economy has repeatedly surprised to the upside since the Fed stopped hiking and began forecasting cuts,” said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA.
– Medora Lee
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but what it does with the federal funds rate can influence them, along with the bond market and inflation.
“There’s a good chance that we’re going to need to get used to rates around 7% again, at least until we start getting better economic news,” said Jacob Channel, senior economist at comparison site LendingTree. “Unfortunately, this probably means that summer homebuying season is going to be expensive and difficult for many would-be buyers to navigate.”
That shouldn’t dissuade you from buying a home you love and can afford.
“If you spend too much time waiting for the ‘perfect’ conditions to arise, you could end up letting a lot of good opportunities go to waste,” he said.
You can also refinance when rates drop, experts said.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.38% on June 7. The average rate was 6.59% on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage.
– Medora Lee
Borrowers’ rates on auto loans are mostly based on factors like credit background, vehicle price, down payment and the lender’s borrowing costs and risks. Fed rate moves have only a small effect.
Still, interest rates on new and used car loans are elevated, hampering car sales, analysts said.
In the first three months of the year, the average APR for new vehicles was 7.1%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter this figure has remained above 7%, while used-vehicle APRs rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 11.7% from the end of last year, car comparison site Edmunds said.
Even the return of new-vehicle incentives isn’t enough to combat steadily high interest rates and climbing negative equity, said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. Negative equity means your car’s value is less than what you paid. Negative equity on trade-ins reached an all-time average high of $6,167 this year, she said.
– Medora Lee
The latest estimate of Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 slipped to 3% after the government reported 3.3% inflation in May, new calculations showed on Wednesday.
The 2025 COLA adjustment eased along with inflation, following an uptick earlier this year. But the increase probably lowballs what seniors will need to keep up with inflation, said Mary Johnson, a retired analyst for the nonprofit Senior Citizens League who tracks and calculates COLA estimates.
The consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of goods and services costs, rose 3.3% in May from a year earlier. That’s down from 3.4% in April.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is based on the “consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers,” or CPI-W. That figure dipped to 3.3% from April’s 3.4%, but it still outpaced the 3.2% COLA Social Security recipients began receiving in January.
– Medora Lee
COLA estimate: Social Security COLA estimate dips, but seniors remain in a hole. Here’s why.
A lot has happened in the last three years. But not a lot of interest rate cuts.
For months now, market forecasters have wondered when the Federal Reserve would step in to reduce interest rates. But the Fed hasn’t budged. The benchmark rate stands at a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it has been since July: Nearly a year.
Inflation’s sting: Will you become a more savvy shopper?
The last time the Fed actually cut interest rates was in March 2020, at the peak of the pandemic. In an emergency meeting on March 14 and 15, the Fed moved to trim its target rate by a full percentage point, from a range of 1%-1.25% to a range of 0-0.25%: Effectively, zero.
The next time the Fed acted on interest rates was two years later, almost to the day, in a meeting on March 15 and 16, 2022. Worried about rising inflation, the panel ordered a quarter-point increase, to a target range of 0.25% to 0.50%.
It’s been all uphill from there. In a series of meetings between that March and July 2023, the Fed pushed interest rates up five full points, setting them at their current level.
– Daniel de Visé
The economy: At 3.3%, inflation remains too high for Fed. What economic data are saying, too
While the Fed’s recent campaign of interest-rate hikes doesn’t directly affect mortgage rates, the increases have rippled through the economy and made the math more difficult for homebuyers.
As of Tuesday, the average annual percentage rate (APR) for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.50%. That rate was about the same as a month ago, but much higher than the mortgage rates we saw between 2010 and early 2022.
Late last year, mortgage rates reached a peak of 7.79%. At that rate, new buyers were paying $2,877 in principle and interest on a $400,000 mortgage, according to Bankrate’s mortgage calculator. That’s more than $1,000 higher than payments on a similar mortgage before the Fed started battling inflation.
Mortgage rates are up from the beginning of the year and well above the 10-year median.
Not surprisingly, as mortgage rates have risen, existing home sales have tumbled. At the same time, average home prices are rising, because fewer homes are on the market. According to economists, homeowners with mortgage rates of 3% or lower are understandably reluctant to give them up.
– Jim Sergent and Daniel de Visé
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4% in May. The monthly number, which represents the percentage of people who are unemployed and looking for work, ticked up from 3.9% in April.
The unemployment rate is rising slowly, which could suggest that employers are pulling back on hiring. Still, the rate remains below the 10-year monthly median rate of 4.3%. The job market had been on a similar roll in 2020 before the pandemic put millions out of work.
The U.S. economy produced $22.7 trillion of goods on an inflation-adjusted, annualized basis in the first quarter of 2024. That activity pushed up GDP by 1.3% – recently adjusted down from 1.6% – from the fourth quarter of 2023.
In other words, the U.S. economy is still growing, but not at a very brisk pace. Some have speculated the Fed’s campaign of interest-rate increases may be starting to weigh on businesses and consumers. Another factor is a spike in imports, reflecting Americans’ purchases from overseas producers.
– Jim Sergent
The annual inflation rate seems to be stalled in the range of 3% to 3.5%, a space it has occupied since the start of the year. And while that figure isn’t particularly high, it’s higher than the 2% rate the Federal Reserve has set as a goal.
Why does inflation remain elevated?
One of the “uncontrollable” inflation components is rent, which remains high and accounts for about one-third of the basket of goods and services used to calculate the consumer price index, said Stephen Bittel, founder and chairman of Terranova Corporation, an alternative investment firm specializing in commercial real estate.
Last month, at a conference in Amsterdam, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called housing inflation “a bit of a puzzle.” Measures of new apartment leases show rents barely increasing.
Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report, coupled with a 4.1% year-over-year jump in wages, “should drive a rebound in consumer spending,” said Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic. That trend, too, “could help keep inflation more buoyant,” she said, further delaying the timeline of any interest rate cuts by the Fed.
– Medora Lee
Wednesday’s inflation report should come as welcome news to the Federal Reserve, analysts and forecasters said.
Inflation was essentially flat in May, defying fears of an overheated economy.
“As we hear from the Fed later today, today’s inflation data should be another feather in the cap for Chairman Powell and raise the confidence for the rest of the voting members,” said Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “More importantly, as we look further out on the calendar, the distance from here to the first rate cut of the cycle appears to be rapidly approaching.”
But analysts cautioned that the new inflation report was hardly definitive.
“Overall, today’s inflation numbers will be a welcome sight for the Fed, though certainly not enough to push them to cut rates,” said Elizabeth Renter, a data analyst at NerdWallet, the personal finance site.
“The Fed will be glad to see inflation slow in this report,” said Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank. “But they will wait for clearer progress toward their inflation target before they start cutting interest rates.”
Comerica’s forecast has the Fed holding interest rates steady today, and again at its next meeting in July, then cutting rates in September, with another likely cut in December: two in all.
– Daniel de Visé
After today’s meeting, the Federal Reserve has four more chances to act on interest rates this year. The panel meets every month or two.
Here are the remaining Fed meetings planned for 2024, including this week’s session:
- June 11-12
- July 30-31
- Sept. 17-18
- Nov. 6-7
- Dec. 17-18
– Daniel de Visé
Stocks soared at the opening bell Wednesday, pushing into record territory on the news that inflation is not rising.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all surged in the minutes after the market opened, with the S&P and Nasdaq hitting all-time highs.
At 1:05 p.m. Eastern Time, the Dow was up about 0.15%, the S&P had gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq was up 1.8%.
All this over an inflation report that was downright boring: exactly what the market wanted. Inflation was essentially flat, with the annual rate rising 3.3% in May, compared with 3.4% in April.
– Daniel de Visé, Bailey Schulz
The Fed’s benchmark, short-term interest rate has stood at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% since July, as the Fed waits for inflation to cool.
Annual inflation dipped to 3.3% in May from 3.4% in April – far below the peak of 9.1% in June 2022, but still above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Odds are slim for a rate cut this summer. Yet, futures markets are still betting on one cut this year, probably in September, as inflation retreats, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which measures market expectations for changes in the benchmark rate.
As recently as March, the median forecast called for three rate cuts this year. Fed officials have since acknowledged that inflation has been surprisingly slow to drop, and economists expect the panel to pencil in fewer rate cuts. But one cut, or two? It will be a close call.
– Medora Lee
The May consumer price index (CPI) is out, coming just hours before the Fed’s meeting ends, and new inflation data could influence the Fed’s rate cut forecasts.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released May’s consumer price index Wednesday morning. For the month, inflation, as measured by the CPI, was unchanged when seasonally adjusted. The annual inflation rate fell slightly to 3.3%.
Thus, while inflation isn’t spiking, the annual rate appears stuck above 3%. That’s more than a full percentage point above where Fed officials want to see it, and another sign that borrowing costs will remain elevated.
The inflation report “could influence the tone” of the Fed meeting, wrote Deutsche Bank chief economist Matthew Luzzetti, in a note. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “comments on inflation will no doubt reflect the May CPI data released that morning.”
– Medora Lee and James Sergent
Almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates when officials conclude their two-day meeting Wednesday. But economists and investors will be looking for clues about when the central bank finally might cut its key rate, and how many times it might do so this year.
Coming into the year, many economists predicted rates would already be falling. They expected as many as six or seven rate cuts this year.
But inflation endures, and at this point, most economists have scaled back their rate cut predictions to two, one or none in 2024. A few experts, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, have even suggested a rate hike probably won’t happen at all.
Interest rates are the main tool the Fed uses to combat inflation. High rates make borrowing more expensive, which slows spending and the economy, generally easing overall price hikes.
– Medora Lee
Jessica Roberts is a seasoned business writer who deciphers the intricacies of the corporate world. With a focus on finance and entrepreneurship, she provides readers with valuable insights into market trends, startup innovations, and economic developments.
