NBA Top Plays on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for Finals Game Four: Boston vs. Dallas

NBA Finals Game Four Betting Trends

The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Finals Game 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for Game 4, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Small home favorites have been vulnerable – Again like the conference finals, the record of the last 18 small home favorites (-4 points or less) in the NBA Finals is just 6-12 SU and ATS (33.3%).
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

Top NBA Resources:

Home teams struggle in Game Four – Game Four hosts have gone just 2-8 SU and ATS (20%) in the NBA Finals since 2013.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game Four – The first three games of the last 10 NBA Finals series have produced 211.1 PPG on average. Game Four has seen a significant drop to 204.1, with nine of the last 10 going Under the total.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 211.5)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been three teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4^th or worse. Their overall record: 3-15 SU and 6-10-2 ATS (37.5%). When coming off wins, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. At home, they are winless, 0-5 SU and ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

* Under the total is 9-2-1 in the last 12 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BOS-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BOS-DAL

Recent Finals NBA Betting Trends

This is the final part a four-part series, I hope you’ve enjoyed and profited from it. Good luck with your NBA Finals wagering.

Series NBA Betting Trends

As I reasoned in the first three articles of this package, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these Finas’ trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

• In the last 11 playoff seasons, the better seeds own a 7-3 edge in Finals’ wins and a 37-22 game wins edge during that span. In 2016, Cleveland and Golden State were both #1 seeds.

• This will be just the second time in 11 seasons that the East representative had a better regular season record. In that time, the team with the better regular season record is 9-2.

• This will be the ninth time since 2013 that one of the teams won at least 10% more games in the regular season. In those other eight recent series, the series record is 7-1 and the individual game record is 33-15.

Scoring Trends

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached into the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-32 SU and 7-31-1 ATS (18.4%).

Success accompanies reaching the 115-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 115 points or more boast a record of 19-3 SU and 16-3-3 ATS over the last eight years. If you recall, the magic number for the conference finals was 116 points.

General NBA Betting Trends

Home teams are a slightly lesser wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 33-27 SU and 28-30-2 ATS (48.3%) since 2013. This includes a 12-17-1 ATS (41.4%) mark since 2018.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 15-6 SU and 13-7-1 ATS (65%) in the last 21 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

Winners cover – Over the last 10 seasons, and 59 games, outright winners have gone 53-3-3 ATS (94.6%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 64 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 36 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 22-11-1 (66.7%) run in the last 34 games.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 211.5)

NBA Betting Trends by Line Range

Small home favorites have been vulnerable – Again like the conference finals, the record of the last 18 small home favorites (-4 points or less) in the NBA Finals is just 6-12 SU and ATS (33.3%).
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1 vs. BOS)

Home underdogs’ bark is less than their bite – Home underdogs in the NBA Finals have proven to be overmatched recently, going just 1-7 SU and ATS (12.5%) in their last eight opportunities.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (*if they become an underdog*)

Trends by Game Number

Home teams struggle in Game Four – Game Four hosts have gone just 2-8 SU & ATS (20%) in the NBA Finals since 2013.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game Four – The first three games of the last 10 NBA Finals series have produced 211.1 PPG on average. Game Four has seen a significant drop to 204.1, with nine of the last 10 going Under the total.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 211.5)

Trends by Seed Number

(note that this year’s Finals matches a #1 in Boston versus a #5 in Dallas)

Top seeds have been a bankroll drainer – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is just 14-8 SU and 9-10-3 ATS (47.4%).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+1 at DAL)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been three teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4^th or worse. Their overall record: 3-15 SU and 6-10-2 ATS (37.5%). When coming off wins, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. At home, they are winless, 0-5 SU & ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

Teams seeded 3^rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3^rd or worse. These teams have been good in Game Three and later of their respective series, going 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS (68.8%).
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-1 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 195-239-1 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+1 at DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 44-62-1 ATS (41.5%) in the next game, including 20-33 ATS (37.7%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+1 at DAL)

Game Four NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game Four UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -1 (+0.6)

Game Four UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -1 (+2.1)

Game Four TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-DAL UNDER 211.5 (-1.1)

Game Four UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -1 (+1.0)

Game Four TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-DAL UNDER 211.5 (-0.6)

Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s game:

Friday, June 14, 2024

(507) BOSTON at (508) DALLAS
* BOSTON is 10-3-1 in the last 14 ATS of the head-to-head series (6-0-1 in the last seven)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

* Under the total is 9-2-1 in the last 12 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total