Tropical Storm Ernesto expected to strengthen as it approaches Bermuda
Forecasters say Tropical Storm Ernesto could strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane over the coming week.
Tropical Storm Ernesto unloaded heavy rain over the northeast Caribbean islands on Tuesday as authorities in Puerto Rico prepared for the storm’s arrival, canceling classes, activating the National Guard and opening shelters.
Ernesto developed into a tropical storm Monday night as it sped toward the northern Leeward Islands, where it eventually began moving overheard early Tuesday, passing near Guadeloupe and Montserrat. Forecasters say the storm could dump up to half a foot of rain across portions of the islands by the time it pushes past Puerto Rico and into the warm western Atlantic later this week.
As of 11 a.m., Ernesto was located 155 miles east southeast of St. Croix and 250 miles east southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm became better organized and strengthened slightly through the morning hours, bringing wind speeds up to 50 mph as it barreled along at 18 mph.
Forecasters spotted indications that an inner core was developing as Ernesto reached the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, leading the National Hurricane Center to warn “Ernesto could be near or at hurricane strength in about 24 hours when the center is north of Puerto Rico.” As a result of Ernesto’s development, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as Culebra and Vieques were placed under hurricane watches.
Tropical storm warnings urging people to stay aware of “considerable flooding” and possible mudslides were also active across the region including Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Vieques and Culebra, according to the National Hurricane Center.
On Monday night, Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi announced the cancellation of the first day of class in public schools, the activation of the National Guard and the opening of hundreds of shelters across the island. He told residents and tourists that even though the storm is not expected to become a hurricane until after it passes Puerto Rico, it will still bring heavy rains that, in some areas, could total up to 10 inches.
The government of the U.S. Virgin Islands announced the closure of all schools on Tuesday, and Gov. Albert Bryan Jr. urged residents at a news conference to take the storm seriously.
Tropical Storm Ernesto: Track where the storm is heading in the latest models
Where is Tropical Storm Ernesto heading?
Ernesto is expected to move over or near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday.
“Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said.
“We expect Ernesto to be a strong tropical storm as it interacts with Puerto Rico late Tuesday night to Wednesday,” said Alex DaSilva, a meteorologist at AccuWeather. “There’s a chance it may even become a hurricane in the waters surrounding the island.”
Will Tropical Storm Ernesto impact the US?
Later in the week, forecasters have Ernesto shifting north and churning toward Bermuda. The warm Atlantic waters are expected to fuel the storm, leading to its development into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday as it moves north of the Greater Antilles. The National Hurricane Center says it could become a major hurricane with wind speeds of 111 mph by Friday.
While the continental U.S. will largely be spared from the storm’s heavy rain and winds, authorities have warned of dangerous rip currents and rough surf along the nation’s Atlantic coast. Last year, all deaths directly tied to Hurricane Idalia were the result of large waves and rip currents.
The Coast Guard on Monday cautioned recreational boaters, fishermen, beachgoers and water sports enthusiasts in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, to stay out of the water “due to deteriorating sea state conditions and dangerous rip currents associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto.”
“We urge the public and the maritime community to stay safe and not underestimate the impacts of this storm,” said Capt. Luis Rodriguez, Coast Guard sector San Juan commander, in a statement.
Start your morning informed: Sign up for USA TODAY’s Daily Briefing newsletter.
Why isn’t Ernesto forecast to hit the U.S. mainland?
Ernesto is not forecast to hit the U.S. mainland and is instead predicted to curve out to sea. This isn’t unusual: Of all the tropical storms and hurricanes that form in the tropical Atlantic in a given year, only about three, on average, make their way to U.S. shores, according to the textbook Meteorology Today.
Because hurricanes don’t move themselves, they are steered around by large weather systems and global winds. Most often storms are pushed northward around or along the western portion of a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, commonly known as a Bermuda High. If the high is located to the east, then hurricanes generally slide around the high’s western edge into the open Atlantic Ocean without making landfall, according to the University of Rhode Island. That’s what’s predicted to happen with Ernesto next week, the National Hurricane Center said.
Sometimes, however, the high is located to the west and extends far enough to the south, in which case storms are blocked from curving north and forced to continue west, putting a large bulls-eye on Florida, Cuba, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Ernesto forms during active hurricane season
If Ernesto strengthens into a Category 1 storm, it will be the third hurricane to emerge so far this hurricane season, one which experts project will be above average because of record warm ocean waters.
Across the eastern U.S., residents and authorities were still recovering from former hurricane Debby, a deadly storm that triggered dangerous, inundating floods from Florida to western New York and Pennsylvania. Last month, Hurricane Beryl – the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record – was linked to over 20 deaths across Texas and the Caribbean.
Contributing: Doyle Rice, Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY
David Turner is a globe-trotting journalist who brings a global perspective to our readers. With a commitment to shedding light on international events, he explores complex geopolitical issues, offering a nuanced view of the world’s most pressing challenges.
