2024 NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: What the bracket reveal tells us about the bubble

Projected to be in:
On the bubble:

Movement: The Badgers are a lock and made the top 16, but the milk has gone bad for Wisconsin. Sitting at 16-4 with six Q1 wins through January, the team has dropped five of its last six, including an overtime loss to Iowa on Saturday. Wisconsin isn’t in any danger of missing the tournament — at least not yet! — but it’s plummeting in the wrong direction. Elsewhere, the Spartans followed a big win over Illinois with back-to-back road victories over Penn State and Michigan to move up to the “projected in” line.

Spotlight On: Northwestern

The Wildcats suffered a tough blow losing guard Ty Berry for the rest of the season with a knee injury. But they still have leading scorer Boo Buie (19 ppg), and fellow guards Brooks Barnhizer (14.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Ryan Langborg (12.2 ppg) can help pick up the slack. Northwestern has four Q1 wins, and its performance metrics outpace the predicative ones, which the committee seems to favor, although it also has a Q4 loss and a 5-7 record away from home. It should be in as things currently stand, but the key will be weathering the final stretch without Berry, highlighted by a midweek trip to East Lansing on March 6.

Big 12

Locks:
Projected to be in:
On the bubble:

Movement: I was ready to make BYU a lock until its 10-point road loss to last-place Oklahoma State on Saturday. The Cougars are still top 10 in the NET, but SOR is lagging and the team is sitting on three Q1 wins, with a road win against UCF the only one coming away from home. Mark Pope’s squad will be in the field barring an epic collapse, but considering the gauntlet left on the schedule, I’m not prepared to rule it out: vs. Baylor, at Kansas State, at Kansas, vs. TCU, at Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma State.

TCU moves up to “projected in” with two straight wins, and Cincinnati continues to tightrope-walk the cut line with a much-needed road victory over UCF.

Spotlight On: Oklahoma

With 18 wins and a SOR of 31 in the rough-and-tumble Big 12, the Sooners should be in. But back-to-back losses to Baylor and Kansas were squandered opportunities to strengthen that foothold. Oklahoma has only three Q1 wins, and its two best — against Iowa State and BYU — were at home. Its best nonconference win was either against Iowa on a neutral court or Providence at home, so it needs to bank a few more quality wins to feel comfortable entering the conference tourney. After an in-state trip to Oklahoma State this weekend, the Sooners go to Iowa State, come home for Houston and Cincinnati, then go to Texas.

Big East

Locks:
On the bubble:

Movement: We witnessed lock-on-lock crime with UConn’s 28-point win over Marquette on Saturday. But the only change here is St. John’s falling off the bubble after dropping its third straight in a 68-62 home loss to Seton Hall. The Johnnies are just 2-9 in Q1 and 14-12 overall, and head coach Rick Pitino is not having a good time.

Spotlight On: Seton Hall

The Pirates broke Pitino, and it was mentioned up top why their five Q1 wins and top-45 SOR could have Shaheen Holloway’s crew in better shape than most think. Home wins over UConn and Marquette look great, but the nonconference was all empty calories and included two Q3 losses. With five left in the regular season, Seton Hall needs home wins over Butler, Villanova and DePaul just to stay in the conversation entering the postseason. Nab one on the road over UConn or Creighton, too? Then we’re really talking.

Pac-12

Lock:
On the bubble:

Movement: No change from last week, although the Buffaloes are slipping farther down the bubble. Is it possible Arizona is readying an under-the-radar title run in a boring Pac-12? At least Washington State, which has won seven straight, continues to climb. The Cougars head to Tuscon on Thursday, and a win would elevate them safely off the bubble.

Spotlight On: Utah

The Utes may have saved their at-large chances with a one-point win over UCLA on Sunday, ending a three-game skid that started with a triple-OT gut-punch loss to Arizona. Non-league wins over BYU, Saint Mary’s and Wake Forest still look good, but in a disappointing Pac-12, there’s very little that inspires on the resume: three Q1 wins (all nonconference), a Q3 loss, 50th in SOR, 4-8 away from home and a 16-10 overall. Utah likely can’t withstand another bad loss, and Saturday’s trip to Colorado might determine which of the two is still on the bubble line next week.

SEC

Locks:
Projected to be in:
On the bubble:

Movement: How quickly fortunes have changed for Kentucky. After losing four of six and three in a row at home, the Wildcats defeated Ole Miss and won at Auburn last week, the latter a third and critical Q1 victory. It was almost enough for us to make UK a lock, but with road trips to LSU and Mississippi State and a home game against Alabama looming, I’ll keep the Wildcats just outside the velvet ropes alongside BYU. The vibes, however, are much better. The Gators, now winners of three straight, have joined Kentucky and South Carolina as “projected in.” With a roadie against Alabama on Wednesday, Florida could be eyeing lock status.

Spotlight On: Ole Miss

The Rebels are this week’s “help me understand these metrics” winner. Ole Miss has 19 wins, is 21st in SOR and has zero bad losses, yet the NET and KenPom ranks are in the 60s. In fact, at 65th in NET and 68th in KenPom as of Monday, Ole Miss ranks the lowest in both among any team in this week’s Bubble Watch. And I don’t fully understand it. I’m not saying the Rebs are a no-doubt tourney team — they have three Q1 wins, none of which are complete bangers, the nonconference SOS is very poor, and the defense leaves a lot to be desired. But I have a hard time seeing how some of the metrics are so far removed from other bubble teams — and based on the top-16 preview, perhaps the committee feels the same way. Regardless, with Mississippi State, South Carolina and Alabama up next, the Rebels can quell some of those metric-based doubts.

Mountain West

Lock:
Projected to be in:
On the bubble:

Movement: The Aztecs cement lock status with consecutive Q1 wins over Colorado State and New Mexico, making them 5-6 in that quadrant. The rest of the top six in the conference continue to beat up on each other in what currently feels like a round-robin of pain. Slight edge to Nevada over Boise State on the bubble line.

Spotlight on: Utah State

The Aggies could be an interesting test case come Selection Sunday. Good predictive and performance metrics, 19-5 record, 10-4 away from home … but only two Q1 wins at the moment (and two more over non-D1 opponents). It’s enough to have Utah State in the field for now, but they’re a heartbeat from the bubble and need more Q1 wins to bolster the resume. Tuesday’s home tilt against SDSU is a prime chance, and with a few Q3s and home Q1 against New Mexico on the other side, Utah State probably needs four of the next five to provide some cushion entering the Mountain West tournament.

Others

Lock:
Projected to be in:
On the bubble:

Movement: Even with only two Q1 wins, the Flyers are a lock, taking down Fordham on Saturday in the last remaining Q4 game on the schedule. Saint Mary’s is basically the extreme version of BYU, 15th in the NET but 55th in SOR. It has four Q1 victories and has won 13 in a row, but with 10 of those 13 against Q3 and Q4 opponents, the Gaels are close, but not quite a lock. Meanwhile, Indiana State has lost two in a row to stay on the bubble line, and Memphis finally dropped out after back-to-back losses to North Texas and SMU. Princeton and James Madison have rejoined the bubble fray. Allow us to explain.

Spotlight On: Princeton and James Madison

How much does the selection committee value those Q1 wins and quality opponents? These two teams could give us an answer. Princeton — which currently has 17 wins, is 9-3 away from home and 34th in SOR — will finish the regular season with zero Q1 games, let alone victories. If the Tigers run the table and lose in the finals of the two-game Ivy League tournament, is that enough to send last year’s Sweet 16 Cinderella back to the dance? What about JMU, which has 23 wins and is 42nd in SOR, but just 1-0 in Q1, 4-2 in Q3 and 17-0 in Q4 (with another non-D1 win to boot)? That Q1 win also came in the season opener against Michigan State, way back on Nov. 6. Is playing more than half of your games against Q4 opponents a formula for March Madness? I don’t see either Princeton or James Madison earning an at-large bid, but I’m curious to find out what the committee thinks.

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(Top photos of Pitt’s Blake Hinson, Seton Hall’s Al-Amir Dawes and St. John’s Chris Ledlum: Barry Reeger / AP and Wendell Cruz / USA Today)