If the total eclipse happened Sunday afternoon, we would have been golden.
Instead, according to the latest weather forecasts and models, Buffalo Niagara is going to face partly to mostly cloudy skies during the eclipse Monday afternoon.
The good news, experts said, is it is entirely possible there will be breaks in the cloud cover that allow us, at times, to see the moon passing across the sun. And, of course, everyone will experience complete darkness during the totality itself.
“I still have a little bit of guarded optimism,” Don Paul, the veteran local meteorologist and Buffalo News contributor, said Sunday.
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It has been the question on everyone’s mind for months, if not years: Will we actually be able to see the once-in-a-lifetime total solar eclipse as it passes through the area Monday?
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Even one day ahead of time, forecasters said that is hard to say with certainty.
Clouds will roll in overnight Sunday into Monday morning and will thicken by the afternoon, but the latest models show the potential for occasional transparency within the cloud cover.
“We do have high confidence that mid- to high-level clouds will be moving into Western New York on Monday afternoon,” said Heather Kenyon, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Buffalo. “However, we aren’t that confident on how the coverage will look. So there are still chances that we could see breaks in the cloud cover, or that they might be thin, and you would still be able to see the eclipse.”
The long-anticipated event will begin just after 2 p.m. Monday with a partial eclipse as the moon starts moving in front of the sun. The total eclipse begins at 3:18 p.m. and should last 3 minutes and 45 seconds here.
Signs were plentiful on Saturday that a sudden crush of visitors would soon arrive in the area. But clouds could affect the size of the crowds.
The moon will then begin moving past the sun, and this period of partial eclipse will end at about 4:30 p.m.
Given our history of less-than-desirable springtime weather, would-be eclipse watchers have wondered for years whether viewing conditions would prove favorable for the totality here.
As Monday’s forecast came into sharper focus, Buffalo last week went through the full April weather experience of snow, rain and, yes, sunshine.
Saturday and Sunday teased us with bright blue skies – and gave visiting eclipse chasers one heck of a welcome to Western New York.
“Hey, if you’ve come to Buffalo Saturday through Monday for the eclipse, we’ve given you two out of three sunny days, and that ain’t bad,” Kevin O’Neill, a meteorologist for WGRZ-TV, posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday.
Mid-level winds could blow some clouds into Western New York at the time of Monday’s eclipse, meteorologist Don Paul says.
Unfortunately, the outlook for Monday is murkier.
The Weather Service on Sunday posted a graphic on X showing the sky cover forecast, as a percentage, across much of upstate New York for Sunday and Monday.
Sunday at 3 p.m., that forecast for Buffalo was at a sun-dappled 10%. For 3 p.m. Monday, the figure was a far-grimmer 75%.
Kenyon and Paul said the area will deal with two layers of clouds on Monday.
The high-level clouds are going to be semi-transparent, according to the Weather Service. The key question is how opaque the mid-level clouds will be, the meteorologists said.
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The service is tracking the clouds on satellite as they move through the upper Midwest, Kenyon said.
The latest models show it won’t be a completely overcast afternoon, Kenyon and Paul said.
There should be – emphasis on should be – intermittent opportunities to see the eclipse through the clouds, they said.
“We’ll have to wait and see,” Kenyon said.
Is there a spot in Western New York where people are more likely to have those breaks in the cloud cover? That is impossible to say, according to Kenyon, because the forecast is calling for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across the area.
Ultimately, it is not the best possible forecast, but it is not the worst one, either.
“It doesn’t look like it’s ideal, but I still think parts of Western New York are going to have some good moments. It’s not a ‘4 Degree Guarantee,’ though,” Paul said, referring dryly to a former feature of his forecasts for WIVB-TV.
People should check the forecasts and publicly available weather models again Monday morning. Paul recommends the GOES Image Viewer from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This is small comfort if the eclipse is completely clouded over but, he noted, Monday is shaping up as a lovely spring day of 60 degrees, with a light breeze and no rain.
“You could stick that in your article, too,” Paul said. “I’m not telling you how to write, but that’s a good point to finish up with.”
Rachel Carter is a health and wellness expert dedicated to helping readers lead healthier lives. With a background in nutrition, she offers evidence-based advice on fitness, nutrition, and mental well-being.
