College Football Playoff projected chances: Where the 8 contenders stand heading into the final week

We almost had a chaotic Week 13, but the main contenders all survived (sorry, Louisville) and we are left with the same eight contenders that we’ve had for the past month. Seven of those eight teams play this weekend, including contenders facing each other in the Pac-12 (Washington vs. Oregon rematch) and the SEC (Georgia vs. Alabama). There are a lot of different combinations of results that will decide which four teams get into the College Football Playoff and my projection model has plotted out how likely it is for each team to make the field of four and win the national title.

We have to add some caveats to the projections this week. My season simulator uses a model I have developed that selects playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and very similar, in my opinion, to the committee’s selection process in that it creates a “resume strength rating,” derived from prior resume strength ratings, past playoff rankings and playoff selections for each season. That means the model is making some assumptions in scenarios where a massive debate would occur.

To be honest, this season is unprecedented in terms of the number of qualified playoff teams this late in the season so the algorithm isn’t going to be great. For example, 12-1 Washington gets in ahead of 11-1 Ohio State by my process. Does that mean the committee will agree with that? Who knows, but that’s partially why Ohio State’s CFP chances are so low in these projections. My skin is crawling just thinking about Oregon potentially getting booted for Texas and Alabama.

Here’s how the national title contenders rank heading into the conference championship games, according to my model.

Projected national title and College Football Playoff chances

Biggest risers in national title chances

Michigan: +7.5% (16.9% to 24.4%)

Alabama: +5.4% (6.6% to 12%)

Texas: +2.9% (5.1% to 8%)

Biggest fallers in national title chances

Ohio State: -14.7% (15% to 0.3%)

Washington: -4.2% (7.6% to 3.4%)

Louisville: -0.7% (0.7% to 0%)

Biggest risers in CFP chances

Michigan: +32.7% (65.9% to 98.6%)

Texas: +20.4% (27.5% to 47.9%)

Oregon: +19% (45.7% to 64.7%)

It’s obvious why Michigan is here. Texas is here in part because the Longhorns are playing Oklahoma State instead of Oklahoma for the Big 12 title game. Oregon cleared the Oregon State hurdle and is in the Pac-12 title game for a rematch against Washington, which continues to drop in my model due to unimpressive results. My model strongly favors Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.

Florida State just missed the top three here, but also saw a big jump in CFP chances. The Seminoles are still viewed as a longshot for the national title after Jordan Travis’ injury and are only a small favorite against Louisville, but it is win and in the CFP for FSU.

Biggest fallers in CFP chances

Ohio State: -56.2% (57.5% to 1.3%)

Washington: -23.6% (50.7% to 27.1%)

Georgia: -14.5% (84.1% to 69.6%)

Washington’s chances also dropped because the Huskies are playing Oregon instead of Arizona, which was not assured going into last week, and because the Huskies’ chances of getting into the Playoff at 12-1 went down with the other top teams avoiding defeats

Georgia’s case is interesting. By winning at Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs’ national title hopes crept up a tiny bit (moving from 29.5% to 29.8%). However, Georgia’s CFP hopes dipped last week because, like with Washington, Georgia’s chances of getting in at 12-1 dropped with a lack of upsets. Georgia is favored to beat Alabama and still has a lot of paths to getting in the CFP at 12-1, but there aren’t as many of those as there were a week ago.

(Photo of Blake Corum: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)