Entering championship weekend, the top eight teams in the College Football Playoff Rankings consisted of four undefeated teams and four with a single loss. Three of those one-loss teams had fallen to one of the other teams in the top eight. That is a closely bunched group of teams.
So, when No. 8 beats No. 1, it is less of a surprise than such an event might normally be. Alabama provided the only upset of Championship Week among the top teams by beating Georgia, but it still may not be enough for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Remember, these rankings do not act like a traditional 25 poll where, as long as a team keeps winning, it is unlikely to get passed. Each set of CFP Rankings gets tossed after it is announced with teams reevaluated from scratch every week.
Before we get to the predicted rankings themselves, here’s a refresher listing some of key points the committee members consider when deciding a team’s ranking beyond their on-field record:
- Strength of schedule
- Conference championships (once decided)
- Head-to-head
- Results vs. common opponents
- Results vs. ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee’s definition of “ranked opponents” is different than what you’re used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week’s CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. when the games are played. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine “ranked opponents;” in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.
Notice that “game control” is not listed among the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term (or similar concepts) coming out of the mouth of past committee chairmen. (The CFP does not have a way to measure “game control” — I’ve seen the data the committee uses — but let’s not kid ourselves: They do talk about it.) And really, who cares how you get to the win as long as you get there?
With all that in mind, here is how I believe the CFP Rankings will look Sunday. Remember: This is not necessarily how I would vote if I were on the committee. I am merely predicting what they will do on Selection Sunday.
Check out Jerry Palm’s bowl projections before Selection Sunday.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
Check out Jerry Palm’s bowl projections before Selection Sunday.
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