Experts analyze state of Ukraine war 2 years into Russia’s invasion

Nick Schifrin:

In two years, countless wives now widows, sons now orphans, the dead stolen of their dignity and 10 million forced to flee their homes, the largest refugee crisis since World War II. Everyone everywhere carries the war’s scars.

And so Ukraine fights; 300,000 soldiers are determined, but exhausted, outmanned and increasingly outgunned. In some areas, for every artillery shell that they fire, Russian soldiers fire 10. Two years ago today, before the full-scale invasion, Russia occupied 7 percent of Ukraine. On March 22, 2022, Moscow expanded control to 27 percent.

Ukraine has won back about half that newly captured territory, but Russia still occupies 18 percent. Recently, Ukraine pushed the Russian navy further back into the Black Sea, increased exports, and now increasingly threatens occupied Crimea. But it recently lost the eastern city of Avdiivka.

The Russian military has momentum as Ukraine waits for U.S. aid, without which senior U.S. officials fear Ukraine will lose.

We now take a look at where the war is, where it could go, and U.S. policy toward Ukraine with three views.

Michael Kofman is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. John Mearsheimer is a political science professor at the University of Chicago. And Rebeccah Heinrichs is senior fellow and director of the Keystone Defense Initiative at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.

Thanks so much. All of you, welcome back to the “NewsHour.”

Michael Kofman, let me start with you.

As we just said, Ukraine has lost Avdiivka. They’re increasingly outgunned, outmanned. How bad is it?

Michael Kofman, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Look, Ukraine starts 2024 in a very difficult position. That is very clear. Ukraine has a deficit in terms of artillery ammunition. Part of that is because it depends on Western support for munitions, and it has a deficit of manpower.

It needs to replenish the force, particularly the infantry component of the force. Now, while it’s true that Russia is materially advantaged in this war, that much is clear, if we look at manpower, particularly if we look at artillery, to a lesser extent, equipment, that advantage at this stage is not decisive either.

The battle for Avdiivka, which was a five-month grinding fight, tells us about the challenges both militaries face. Ukraine was forced to retreat after fighting a defensive battle, but it inflicted very high costs on the Russian military. It cost the Russian military almost an entire army’s worth of equipment, and equipment remains the limiting factor for them.

So, that being said, this year is clearly looking like a year during which Ukraine is going to focus most likely much more on holding, defending, trying to rebuild and reconstitute the force, and maybe creating challenges for the Russian armed forces with expanded strike campaigns.