Fantasy Football Week 16: Keys to victory

Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri will use this space to deliver his keys to victory every week of the 2023 NFL season.

Finding No. 1: The best (RB) spot of the week belongs to Aaron Jones

He returned in Week 15 and was somewhat limited. Jones only played 50% of the Packers’ snaps, but when he was on the field, he was earning touches. Jones had 17 total touches for 69 yards in a tough matchup against the Bucs.

This week he finds himself in the best spot of the week as a favorite against the Panthers. Carolina allows the third-most points and fifth-most yards to opposing RBs this season. The Panthers also give up league-high efficiency to running backs and Jones is top-10 in RB efficiency this year. Expect a larger role this week as Jones gets healthier and the Packers battle injuries in their receiver room (more on that later).

Finding No. 2: The sketchy spot of the week belongs to Tony Pollard

Pollard had a down game in Week 15 and it was mostly due to game script. Pollard was decently efficient on the ground, earning 52 yards on 11 carries, but he saw less usage due to the Cowboys playing from behind. Pollard now ranks 39th in running back efficiency this year.

This week he’s in a sketchy spot as he’s an underdog against the Dolphins’ No. 2-ranked run defense. Miami has allowed the least production to RBs in the past month of the season. Last week we saw the highly talented Breece Hall earn just 12 yards on six carries. The week before that Derrick Henry totaled 34 yards on 17 carries. This defense has allowed just 2.5 yards per carry to opposing backfields in the past month. Temper expectations for Pollard in Week 16.

Finding No. 3: The Pick-up-and-Play of the week is Parker Washington

Washington earned six targets in Week 15. He’s now seen six targets in two of his last three games and is developing some chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. This is important because Zay Jones left with an apparent hamstring injury in Week 15 and is week to week. Washington is expected to start in Week 16 for the Jaguars.

His matchup would make him a pick-up-and-play option. Washington will face the Bucs, who allow the third-most production to opposing receivers. We saw this last week when both Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks produced over 12 fantasy points each. The fifth-round rookie is in a great spot this week; a favorable matchup and his team is throwing at the fourth-highest rate in the league.

This is all dependent upon, of course, if Trevor Lawrence plays (concussion). If he does, you can start Washington.

Dameon Pierce returned from injury in Week 12 and we saw this backfield become split once again. But that changed in Week 14 when Singletary earned 13 carries to just four for Pierce. This split in usage became even wider this past week.

Singletary played 75% of the snaps and earned 30 touches, compared to just one touch for Dameon Pierce. Despite the massive usage, Singletary was highly efficient averaging 5.6 yards per touch and 170 total yards. This was his second game of over 160 total yards this season. In Week 16, he’ll take on an injured Browns run defense. Singletary is a starter this week.

Finding No. 5: The bounce back of the week is Ezekiel Elliott

Elliott started his second straight game for the injured Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 15. After a 140-yard performance in Week 14, Elliott struggled against Kansas City in Week 15. Zeke totaled 46 yards on 16 touches. His production wasn’t great, but his usage was. Elliott commanded 88% of the snaps and over 70% of the backfield carries. This usage would’ve been even higher, but he was pulled late in the game. Rhamondre Stevenson is still not practicing and is trending to miss Week 16.

This week Elliott gets a much more favorable matchup. He’ll take on a Denver run defense that’s allowed top-five production to opposing backfields this season. In Week 15, the Broncos allowed 185 rushing yards to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Patriots are six-point underdogs so expect Zeke to stay involved in the receiving game. He’s earned 14 targets in the past two games.

Finding No. 6: Start Darren Waller, but watch his usage closely

Waller returned in Week 15 and was expected to be limited in this game. This is exactly what we saw happen as Waller ran less than 50% of the Giants’ routes against the Saints. But here’s the good news: Waller was targeted 18% of the time in his first game with Tommy DeVito. This was second on the team behind Darius Slayton, who ran 50% more routes than Waller.

Waller’s usage is something to watch moving forward. He’ll face the Eagles in Week 16. Philadelphia runs a man-heavy defense, which is good news for Waller. He’ll have a built-in advantage over the Eagles’ linebackers, the weakest part of Philly’s defense. Start Waller this week.

Finding No. 7: Consider streaming the Denver Broncos D/ST

The Broncos’ defense is available in over 50% of leagues. They just gave up 42 points to the Lions but that was a brutal matchup for them. Denver’s secondary has been a top-10 unit the past two months of the season. But its run defense remains poor. The matchup against Detroit’s No. 5-ranked rush offense was never great.

But the Broncos’ schedule in Weeks 16 and 17 is favorable. They’ll face Bailey Zappe and Easton Stick in the next two weeks. Both the Patriots and Chargers don’t pose a threat on the ground. Both rush offenses rank in the bottom half of the league, with the Chargers being the third-worst in the NFL. The Broncos are an easy way to secure an upside playoff defense at no cost off the waiver wire. Add them if you still can.

Finding No. 8: Dalton Kincaid is trending down

Dawson Knox returned in Week 14 and it didn’t seem to affect Kincaid’s role. Kincaid still ran over 85% of the Bills’ routes and earned seven targets. But in Week 15, his usage changed. Kincaid ran just 65% of the routes and earned two targets, while Knox saw his routes increase to about 50%.

Buffalo enabled its first run-heavy game script of the season. Josh Allen only threw 15 times. I wouldn’t panic here, but it is worth noting that Dawson Knox’s usage did increase after another week removed from injury. This is an outlier performance from the Buffalo offense; we won’t make any drastic conclusions here, but we should keep an eye on this heading into Week 16.

Finding No. 9: Consider adding Joe Flacco off the waiver wire

Flacco has been great in fantasy while just getting by in real life. He leads the NFL in interceptable passes since becoming the Browns’ starter and he’s completing just 58% of his passes. But he’s been good enough to pick up some wins and remain the Cleveland starter.

Over his three starts with the Browns, Flacco is averaging 313 yards per game and seven total touchdowns. This week he gets a Texans secondary that recently allowed Zach Wilson to be the AFC player of the week, throwing for 301 yards and completing 75% of his passes. You can stream Joe Elite this week.

Finding No. 10: Consider Dontayvion Wicks in deep leagues

The Packers are dealing with injuries in their receiver room. Christian Watson is still not practicing with a hamstring issue and Jayden Reed missed practice to start the week with a toe/chest injury. There’s a chance Wicks takes on an expanded role in Week 16 against the Panthers, if he’s not hampered by his own injury.

Wicks is a fifth-round rookie from Virginia. He broke out at 20 years old with a 1,200-yard season and nine scores. His role with the Packers has been increasing in the past month. His routes run have increased in each of the last four weeks and he’s averaging 5.3 targets during this stretch. Wicks is coming off a career-high 97-yard performance in Week 15. He’s a deep-league option if either Watson or Reed are out this week.