Fantasy Football Week 16: Viewer’s Guide

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 16 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

BINGE

BALTIMORE RAVENS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

We lead with the final game on the Week 16 schedule because not only is it easily the best game on the Christmas weekend slate, but it very well could be the game of the year. San Francisco and Baltimore enter this week playing at the height of the respective powers for each operation. As the current No. 1 seed in each respective conference, you don’t need me to tell you why this game is a heart-pumping, life-affirming matchup for football fans at the end of the holiday weekend.

Brock Purdy is about to get his biggest test against one of the premier defenses in the league. The Ravens employ a stop unit with no easy nits to pick at, but San Francisco’s freakshow skill-position players put defenses in a bind more than any other group in the modern NFL.

All I want for Christmas is a good, competitive game between the 49ers and the Ravens where the stars on all sides of the field shine bright. Everything looks like it’s set up that way.

Biggest Storyline: This is a top-level coaching matchup. In the face of all the MVP talk, one take has crystalized for me regarding Kyle Shanahan:

Yes, this offense is talented but Shanahan has the final say over this roster. The team is built in his image and under his direction. All these players are reaching their fullest potential because of his guidance and roster construction.

On the Ravens side, of course, John Harbaugh is fantastic but I want to highlight Mike Macdonald.

He’s been the best defensive coordinator in the league this season. The Ravens don’t dominate the standings in any one coverage. They throw everything at you and mix things up on the back end. That makes them a difficult nut to crack but if anyone can do it, Shanahan is up to the task. The chess matchup between these two men is what prime-time football is all about.

Stat you need to know: The 49ers have allowed 10.3% of the runs against them to go for 15+ yards the last three weeks, most in the NFL. This has been a thorn in the 49ers defense’s side all season. They rank outside of the top 20 in rushing success rate allowed. Last week, with injuries up front, Arizona was able to run all over them even in a negative game script. With Keaton Mitchell doing down last week, Ravens running back Gus Edwards played on 40% of the team’s snaps, his highest rate since Week 10. He could be in fantasy flex consideration, especially if this game gets high-scoring.

Player in a smash spot: Lamar Jackson. In reality, if anyone is going to find cracks in the run defense, it’s Jackson. He’s gotten his way into the fringes of the MVP discussion and could take another step with a win in this game, which would go a long way since the statistical resume just won’t be there on this offense. Make no mistake and forget the numbers, Jackson has taken his game to another level this season and more than lived up to the task of evolving in a new Ravens offense.

Running isn’t the most dynamic part of his game anymore as he’s shined with attacking the middle of the field and throwing Matthew Stafford-style wild-arm-angle heaters downfield. Still, I can see him getting back to vintage-level scrambling numbers against this defense as he looks to avoid a pass rush that’s been on fire since trading for Chase Young.

DALLAS COWBOYS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

This matchup has to be high on the “Narrative Bowl” rankings of the season. For different reasons, both of these teams need to shake monkeys off their backs. Miami has not beaten good teams this season and whether they like it or not, that’s a fact until they can prove otherwise. They can do it this week because Dallas is a quality opponent despite its flaws.

On the Cowboys’ side, they’ve struggled immensely on the road against good teams this year. Whoever comes out of this game can breathe a sigh of relief and avoid these talking points and media questions all week. The other will have to bat away the inquisitions until the schedule presents them another chance to exorcise the demons.

Biggest Storyline: CeeDee Lamb vs. Jalen Ramsey. It’s been many years since we’ve seen Jalen Ramsey as a perimeter shadow corner locking down No. 1 wideouts. For most of his time in Los Angeles, he played the STAR position as the big nickel defender. In Week 15, he was assigned to shut down Garrett Wilson and responded.

Lamb is a much more difficult receiver to track around than someone like Wilson because he lines up at all three receiver positions. Yet, with Ramsey’s experience as a slot defender, he’s uniquely positioned to shadow the Cowboys wideout. It remains to be seen if Vic Fangio wants to completely alter the rules of his defense against a movable chess piece like Lamb but he did admit it would be a fun matchup in his media availability.

The Dolphins defense has been an elite unit in the second half of the season, ranking No. 1 in EPA per play allowed since Week 10, and Lamb has been one of the best offensive players in the league all year. Not only would this be a fun matchup to watch as two pure titans would go to battle, but it could also be the key to which team wins this game.

Stat you need to know: The Cowboys rank dead last in rushing success rate allowed. They’ve given up 148 yards per game on the ground and five touchdowns in the last three weeks alone. We haven’t seen teams be able to exploit this weakness often in 2023 because Dallas has so often played with a lead. The Bills shined as bright a light as you possibly can on this hole in Week 15. No team can score as quickly as Miami can, especially since it looks like Tyreek Hill will be back in action, which could present an issue for Dallas.

Player in a smash spot: Raheem Mostert is the guy for all the reasons outlined above. Mostert appeared on 58% of the top 500 Yahoo Public League teams, the highest rate of any player; Christian McCaffrey is second at 57.6%. Essentially, you got a player who is as impactful as Christian McCaffrey deep in the double-digit rounds of drafts. What a steal. All those folks should remain happy in Week 16 because the matchup is gorgeous.

DETROIT LIONS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

A pair of NFC North playoff contenders meet in what could be an electric fantasy matchup. The Vikings got a big performance out of almost everyone on offense last week, including backup RB Ty Chandler. It sounds like he will remain the RB1 after giving Minnesota its best rushing performance of the season. Crazy as it sounds, Chandler may go down as a fantasy league winner for championship contenders should he hang onto that job.

As long as both quarterbacks cooperate, Chandler won’t be the only smash player in this matchup.

Biggest Storyline: Jared Goff against a challenging defense. Brian Flores is a madman — the Vikings lead the NFL in Cover-Zero looks on defense and crowd the line of scrimmage on almost every down. That makes it tough to run into the teeth of their front seven but since so many of those packages contain three safeties, they are able to disguise coverages better than any defense in the league. Minnesota also leads the NFL in blitz rate.

No defense puts more stress on opposing offenses. It’s critical to see how Jared Goff responds in this game. Last week was a perfect setup for him to smash; this week is trickier.

Beyond the home/road splits, this is the key to understanding Goff’s game. Last week, the Bengals showed a second-half plan to solve the Vikings and Flores’ puzzles. I trust Ben Johnson to do the same. Goff just needs to execute under pressure, something that’s always haunted him.

Stat you need to know: Jahmyr Gibbs has run a route on 58% of the dropbacks since Week 12. Figuring out the Lions’ passing-down running back rotation is crucial for Week 16. We know the Vikings blitz more than anyone in the league, sending intense pressure and operating with five-man fronts. As such, the Vikings have allowed the seventh-most targets to RBs but the 12th-fewest yards to running backs. Those big plays aren’t often there but reliable checkdowns are just as important as pass blocking. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say, if the Lions unleash Gibbs as a receiver in this game and trust him to stick in there to pass protect, he should be a top-eight pick off the board in 2024 leagues.

Player in a smash spot: Vikings passing game. Mullens had the 13th-highest catchable pass rate in Week 15. That’s all we need out of him against the extremely vulnerable Lions defense to get all our Vikings pass-catchers into fantasy lineups.

Mullens isn’t a clean player. Mistakes are going to happen. He just needs to be a quality distributor on the other plays to make it worth it.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at HOUSTON TEXANS

I’m not sure we are getting a fantasy football bonanza in this contest — the 40-point projected total, per Bet MGM, doesn’t scream “Shootout!” — but this is a critical game for the postseason run. These two unlikely AFC contenders will meet in Week 16 with reserve quarterbacks under center. Last week, we saw these two teams operate with their backup passers in pretty stark contrast.

Biggest Storyline: Case Keenum vs. Joe Flacco for the rights to push the Browns and Texans into the playoffs. Forget “What year is it?” — what reality are we living in?!

For Cleveland, Flacco has been nothing short of a godsend. Flacco has the lowest expected completion percentage (59.9%) among QBs this season, per Next Gen Stats. It is obvious that Kevin Stefanski has felt the most comfortable with Flacco running his true offense than any other QB the Browns have had since Jacoby Brissett in 2022. The film doesn’t lie. And folks, this is a well-designed offense under Stefanski. All that means is, we can dial up expectations for all Browns pass-catchers as long as Flacco is under center; even if he turns the ball over, he’s making those big-boy throws.

Stat you need to know: The Texans had a -12% pass rate over expected in Week 15. It was -2% in Weeks 1-14. While this team was more than willing to let rookie C.J. Stroud off the leash, they understandably rolled out a pretty conservative game plan under Case Keenum. That was true despite facing a tough run defense in Tennessee. Devin Singletary responded with a big outing and he’s someone to trust this week against a banged-up Browns defense.

Player in a smash spot: David Njoku. Over the last two weeks, Njoku has 22 targets to his name and has found the end zone three times. Last week was his first 100-yard game since midway through the 2021 season. The Texans’ pass defense is sneaky good and is strong at outside corner. Njoku should be the first read for Flacco quite often once again.

STREAM

BUFFALO BILLS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Biggest Storyline: The Bills’ pursuit to win the division. Yes, one team is doing all the work to put this game even just in the stream category. Buffalo should find an easy opponent for itself here with the Chargers in organizational chaos mode following the firings of Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco. If the Bills can scoot by this week they’ll have New England waiting in Week 17, another getable matchup. If they win both of these games, we’re possibly looking at a Week 18 contest that will decide the AFC East between Buffalo and Miami.

Stat you need to know: Easton Stick completed nine of 14 passes (on 16 dropbacks) for 75 yards with two sacks in the first half of Week 15. Any end-of-game production for Stick was largely a mirage. I don’t think you can have faith in any Chargers going into this matchup.

Player in a smash spot: Stefon Diggs. Per Fantasy Points Data, the All-Pro wideout has a 41.9% share of the first-read targets over the last three weeks, the fifth highest among any pass catchers. This is critical because it shows that while Diggs hasn’t had a monster game of late, he is still the focal point of the Bills’ passing attack. They just haven’t needed to throw the ball all over the yard. When and if Buffalo unveils a pass-heavy game plan (perhaps this week against the Chargers’ 32nd-ranked pass defense) Diggs can and will smash. If not this week, the big game is coming down the stretch.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Biggest Storyline: Can Antonio Pierce keep building a case for the permanent gig? I don’t think we’ll learn much about the Chiefs in this contest so I’ll be focused on the Raiders from a forecasting perspective. Pierce had to have made considerable strides in pursuing the full-time head coaching job last week with a blowout win over the Chargers.

Stat you need to know: Zamir White in Week 15 played 70% of the snaps and owned 65% of the rush attempts. He also ran a route on 51% of the dropbacks. He may not get another crack at that level of work if Josh Jacobs returns from injury, but at the very least we know he is one of the premier stashes in fake football.

Player in a smash spot: Rashee Rice. Over the last two weeks, Rice has run a route on 80.2% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. He finally got the promotion we’ve been looking for. While his skill set is still pretty narrow and deployment limited to crossing routes and designed touches, as shown by his aDOT of only 5.1, he has a 23.5% target share in this span, the highest on the team. Even if he hasn’t displayed all the skills we want in a true No. 1 NFL wideout, his role on this offense is more than enough to be a must-start fantasy option the rest of the way.

NEW YORK GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Biggest Storyline: Does this game even matter for the Eagles? In one sense, every game this time of year matters for any contender. Improving your seeding is a tangible way in which these contests count. There’s also the chance to build momentum and problem-solve as contenders heading into the playoffs. The Giants provide an opportunity for the Eagles to beat up on an inferior team after losing three straight contests to teams that have either clinched a spot or are squarely alive in the NFC playoff race.

I’m just not sure that we’ll come out of this game, even if it’s a convincing Eagles’ win, with any confidence that they’ve fixed what’s ailed them on either side of the ball.

Stat you need to know: Jalen Hurts’ adjusted net yards per attempt ranks 20th of 26 QBs to take 70-plus dropbacks the last three weeks.

He is right behind Bailey Zappe and just ahead of Russell Wilson and Tommy DeVito. He has the lowest passer rating in this group. There are many issues at play with the Eagles offense right now. However, I’m not sure why there seems to be some hesitancy to point out the obvious fact that the quarterback just isn’t playing as well as he did last season. Overall, I still believe in Hurts and he’s a fantasy cheat code with the tush push but regardless, the Eagles will need a better version ASAP than what they’ve gotten so far if they want to make another Super Bowl run.

Player in a smash spot: The whole Eagles passing game and Saquon Barkley. As mentioned above, while the Eagles’ passing game is struggling, the aggressive and man-coverage-heavy Giants provide an excellent rebound spot for this crew. A.J. Brown on vertical routes is the usual answer for Philly against man coverage. Expect to see a heavy dose this week. On the other side, gap integrity was an issue for the usually stout Eagles front in the first game with Matt Patricia calling the shots on defense. I can see Saquon Barkley taking advantage of that despite coming off a season-low 37 yards from scrimmage last week.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Biggest Storyline: Can the Jaguars stop the spiral? At one point, it looked like Jacksonville was going to run away with the AFC South. We are well off that path at this point. Now they’ll have to take on an upstart Bucs team with their backup quarterback, C.J. Beathard, if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t clear the concussion protocol. Tampa Bay’s secondary has been shredded this season, but it’s hard to trust Beathard to execute the assignment with a banged-up receiver room. Running the ball likely isn’t a viable alternative either. Jacksonville’s run game has been a mess all season and Travis Etienne Jr. has averaged 3.3 yards per carry in Weeks 6 to 15. This is going to be a tough spot for the Jags but an upset win would go a long way to staving off their season slipping away.

Stat you need to know: Chris Godwin’s designed target rates the last three seasons, per Fantasy Points Data: 2021 – 27%, 2022 – 25.2% and 2023 – 8.3%. If you can’t spot the key trend let me add this to the mix; in a monster Week 15 performance that mark jumped to 15.4%. This is easy to explain. Godwin is at his best as a power slot receiver who is schemed up looks against smaller nickel corners and linebackers. His inside snaps jumped the last two weeks, hence the better usage and results. As long as he’s getting this deployment, which is better suited for his skill set we can use him in lineups.

Player in a smash spot: Mike Evans. You can feel good about both Bucs wideouts this week. The Jaguars have been beatable in the secondary all season. Jacksonville’s outside corners don’t present a ton of size and have been vulnerable over the top. If the pass rush doesn’t get home on Baker Mayfield he’s going to have plenty of room to find Evans downfield.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at TENNESSEE TITANS

Biggest Storyline: What the Seahawks offense looks like with Geno Smith back under center. There’s no denying Drew Lock had a magic, storybook-like final drive on Monday night last week. That being said, there were some fits and starts to the unit with the backup quarterback under center. Of course, this unit hasn’t been steady under Smith all season, either. The crew has a chance to get rolling this week and keep Seattle’s playoff hopes alive. Smith and Co. face a 30th-ranked Titans pass defense in EPA per dropback and success rate.

Stat you need to know:

We’re coming to the end of what’s been one of the more epic runs in recent years at the running back position. Even Henry himself seemed to acknowledge that fact to the media this week. Henry has still shown he can help a team at this stage of his career, but his build-up rushing style has been a particularly rough fit with the mess that is the Titans’ offensive line.

Player in a smash spot: DK Metcalf. In Weeks 13-15, Metcalf led the Seahawks with a 37.4% air-yard share, despite being targeted on just 19% of his routes run, the lowest of the top-three Seattle receivers. He has the best matchup against this beatable secondary. Tennessee has allowed 1,820 yards to outside receivers, third-most in the league, compared to 928 yards to the slot, the 10th fewest.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at CHICAGO BEARS

Biggest Storyline: Trey McBride’s continued ascension. Dalton Del Don made the case for Trey McBride being the TE1 overall next season based on his production as the starter this season.

The young tight end is balling right now. The 2023 campaign has quietly restored a position that some folks in fantasy were ready to eliminate this offseason. McBride is one of the poster men in the revitalization of the youth at this position.

Stat you need to know: Kyler Murray in five games has a 78.4 passer rating and 5.8 adjusted yards per attempt — but he’s collected 29-155-2 as a rusher. It’s been a mixed bag for Murray in his return to the playing field. If the Cardinals still end up rocking with him next season, I can’t blame them even if he’s been shaky at times. This receiver room has been a mess with Murray under center, as injuries struck Marquise Brown right when he returned.

Player in a smash spot: Justin Fields. The Bears quarterback is coming off a season-low 2.4 adjusted yards per attempt last week, in terms of games he has started and finished. This is a nice rebound spot against a softer defense that sits back in cover-four at a league-high 34.8% of their snaps. There will be room underneath for Fields to find rushing lanes here.

GREEN BAY PACKERS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

Biggest Storyline: The Packers can’t afford another slip. After looking like one of the breakout teams last month, the Packers have dropped two straight games against beatable opponents. They now have a mere 22% chance to make the playoffs, per the New York Times model. Any sort of whiff against Carolina, despite their Week 15 win, would bring up more troubling questions about the future of this team, despite some of the clear promise on the offensive side of the ball in 2023.

Stat you need to know: Packers’ routes run in Week 15 out of 41 dropbacks: Tucker Kraft 37, Romeo Doubs 32, Dontayvion Wicks 28, Malik Heath 16, Jayden Reed 15 (team-high eight targets) and Patrick Taylor 15. It’s wild how many young players the Packers have hit on the last two years. Even without Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave out there, they were littered with inspiring young playmakers across the board. We’re still discovering how the rotation will sort out in the years to come but there’s no doubt it’s a talented crew.

Player in a smash spot: Dontayvion Wicks, if Jayden Reed doesn’t play. Reception Perception subscribers know Reed is a baller but he is not the only rookie Packers WR looking good in my charting. Wicks knows how to beat man coverage, and ranked fifth in success rate vs. press in the in-season RP rookie report. He is coming off a 97-yard performance. Playing time has ticked up in four straight games. It’s either Reed or Wicks that’s the best route runner on the team. He makes for a solid WR2 candidate if Reed and Watson both sit. Even if Reed is out there, Wicks is still a nice flier.

SKIP

CINCINNATI BENGALS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

One reason to maybe watch: I feel bad placing the Bengals in the “skip” section but alas, that’s what happens when you’re playing the Steelers. It’s worth watching this Bengals offense to see how they can function without Ja’Marr Chase. So much of this unit under Jake Browning has been about creating layups and Chase does that not just with his own targets but how he dictates coverages. Tee Higgins had the 10th-highest expected fantasy points among WRs in Week 15, per Fantasy Points Data’s model. He’ll need to be the engine of the passing game and thrive in a difficult matchup against physical rookie corner, Joey Porter Jr.

Stat you need to know: George Pickens has cleared 50 receiving yards twice since Week 8. If we’re being honest, the myth of Pickens was much more exciting than the rookie-season film. Now, we’re in the middle of a week-long media cycle about Pickens’ lack of effort on a blocking play for upstart running back Jaylen Warren last week. If that’s not a perfect indication of what a disastrous season this has been for the second-year receiver, I don’t know what else is. Pittsburgh is now moving to their third quarterback of the season and we’ve seen Mason Rudolph play. We know what this looks like and it’s not good enough to save the Steelers’ sinking season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at ATLANTA FALCONS

One reason to maybe watch: The Colts are getting some of their guys back. If you have followed my content all season, you know I am sky-high on Colts head coach and play-caller, Shane Steichen. This season has been a raging success under Steichen and he’s shown he has what it takes to be a top offensive designer in the league. Just look at how the Eagles offense has struggled to find answers without him. So, in reality, the Colts don’t really belong in the skip column — much like the previous game, this is about their opponent’s foolishness — especially when they’re likely to have Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. back in the lineup. While the B-team got by against the Steelers last week, this RPO and crossing-route-heavy offense is at its full potency when those two players are on the field together. They’re both must-starts in fantasy football.

Stat you need to know: Bijan Robinson received a season-low eight touches in Week 15. I doubt I’m breaking any news to you here. It’s not just the fantasy football community that’s up in arms about the Falcons’ work distribution anymore. Now that Arthur Smith has guided the Falcons to a lost season, the NFL world at large is asking what’s going on in Atlanta.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at NEW YORK JETS

One reason to maybe watch: Keeping track of Sam Howell. Despite Jacoby Brissett entering last week’s game and running the offense well, the Commanders will go back to Howell this week. He’s the younger developmental player so that makes sense. Howell can be a solid backup, fringe-starter type of quarterback in the league — something in the range of the best Ryan Fitzpatrick years. Washington may not be in the perfect range to grab one of those top quarterbacks so we could very well see Howell in a training camp battle with a rookie or another veteran under a new coaching staff next year.

How he finishes amid a lost season will matter in that discussion.

Stat you need to know: Zach Wilson was under pressure on 73% of his dropbacks last week. So many folks are excited about some of these Jets players (read: two of the Jets players) going against a truly hapless Commanders defense. However, as we saw last week, the Jets’ offensive line is in such bad shape it can sink an entire game plan. Garrett Wilson can still hit big in this one, but quarterback worries (Zach Wilson has been ruled out) and pass protection still loom.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at DENVER BRONCOS

One reason to maybe watch: To see if the Broncos can bounce back. Denver allowed 447 total yards against the Lions, the most since they ceded 471 against the Bears in Week 5. The defense had been on a nice run but mostly lived off turnovers.

Good offenses can exploit a unit like that, as Detroit showed. New England doesn’t exactly qualify for that title.

So the Broncos should be able to make easy work of this matchup. We’re mostly looking for what Phase Two of the Sean Payton Broncos may look like, as they’re deep longshots to make a postseason run but that’s still an important discovery mission.

Stat you need to know: Ezekiel Elliott in Week 14: 91% of the snaps, 88% of the carries and a 29% target share. Ezekiel Elliott in Week 15: 86% of the snaps, 69% of the carries and a 19% target share. Those Week 15 usage numbers are still massive but even a handful lost for the RB1 of an offense like New England’s is a big deal. I’ve always liked Kevin Harris, the running back who “stole” the Week 15 touchdown, a little bit. Elliott does present some risk in fantasy despite the workload.