Since most of the rain is expected to fall in about six to 10 hours, a flood threat may arise, especially near small streams and areas of poor drainage. The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon.
“Expect a period where rainfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour along the urban corridor,” the Weather Service wrote in its excessive-rainfall outlook for Saturday. The threat of heavy rain will expand northeast from Washington into Philadelphia, New York and Boston as the day wears on.
The timing is poor for the first weekend of the National Cherry Blossom Festival, which kicked off Wednesday a few days after peak bloom was announced. Some Saturday events have been canceled because of the forecast, including Bloomaroo at the Wharf (rescheduled for March 30) and Art of Pink at National Landing (new date to be announced).
Sunday should be salvageable for outdoor plans as sunshine returns. But, by then, many of the blossoms may be on the ground because of Saturday’s rain and wind.
- 9 p.m. Friday to 1 a.m. Saturday: Showers develop from the southwest to northeast. Temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s.
- 1 to 7 a.m. Saturday: Rain becomes heavier and steadier with patchy fog. Temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s.
- 7 a.m. to 1 p.m.: Widespread heavy rain and possible areas of flooding. Becoming breezy. Temperatures 50 to 55.
- 1 to 5 p.m.: Rain eases and tapers off from southwest to northeast by 3 p.m. or so. Temperatures 50 to 55, with winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph.
There is general agreement from weather prediction models on rainfall totals between about 1.5 and 3 inches. Below is a breakdown:
- HRRR: 2.6 inches (1.5 to 3 inches regionwide)
- GFS: 2.5 inches (1.5 to 3+ inches regionwide)
- European: 1.83 inches (1.25 to 2.5 inches regionwide)
- High-resolution NAM: 1.69 inches (1.5 to 2.5 inches regionwide)
The National Weather Service is predicting 2.2 inches for the District and 1.5 to 2.5 inches across the region. Locally higher (and lower) amounts are possible. The greatest totals are probable along and east of Interstate 95, while amounts will trail off closer to an inch near the Interstate 81 corridor.
Flood watches through Boston, snow in interior New England
The storm hitting the D.C. area will charge up the East Coast on Saturday, spreading heavy precipitation throughout the Northeast. The flood watch in Washington expands north to the coast of Maine. Widespread totals of 2 to 3 inches are forecast, with maximum amounts between New Jersey and coastal Southern New England, where some spots could top 3 inches.
As the precipitation moves over colder air in the interior Northeast, it will turn to snow. Winter storm warnings stretch from the shores of Lake Ontario through the Adirondacks and across northern Vermont and New Hampshire into interior Maine. Much of that zone is forecast to pick up 6 to 12 inches of snow, with the high spots of Vermont and New Hampshire seeing up to 20 inches.
Rainy Saturdays becoming all too common
In the Washington region, a lot of the recent storminess has been skewed toward the weekend and, of late, particularly on Saturday.
Since Dec. 1, out of the 16.13 inches of rain (and melted snow) that has fallen, more than half has occurred over the weekend: 2.96 inches on Saturday and 5.37 inches on Sunday. Only a handful of weekends have been precipitation free.
So far this March, the two rainiest days both occurred on Saturdays: March 2 (0.73 inches) and 9 (0.81 inches). This Saturday will probably be the rainiest of the bunch.
Precipitation is a little above average so far this year
The Washington region has generally been in a wet pattern since December, although storminess started to become a bit more sporadic in February and so far this March. Even so, the 10 inches or so that most of the area has seen so far this calendar year is a bit above average. In the District, the 9.7 inches so far this year is about 2 inches above the norm.
Drought that covered much of the region into the fall of 2023 has been totally wiped out.
This storm should push March precipitation above average and will probably mark the fourth instance of at least an inch of rain on a calendar day this year, the most this early in the year since 2003.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
Amanda Smith is a dedicated U.S. correspondent with a passion for uncovering the stories that shape the nation. With a background in political science, she provides in-depth analysis and insightful commentary on domestic affairs, ensuring readers are well-informed about the latest developments across the United States.
