What happens if Trump or Biden drop out of the presidential race?
With concerns about both candidates ages, along with Republican frontrunner Donald Trumps legal troubles, what happens if Trump or Biden drop out?
WASHINGTON − With one of the 2024 presidential candidates facing four criminal indictments and the other recently described as having “diminished capacities,” voters are asking a key question as they get ready to head to the ballot box: What happens if a candidate, for whatever reason, has to drop out of the race?”
The likely rematch between President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican nominee former President Donald Trump will be the first time in the country’s history a major presidential candidate, Trump, faces over 90 charges in four indictments ranging from New York to Florida. The former president and his businesses also face a number of civil lawsuits.
For Biden, age has been a concern among voters heading into the election, but a recent report from the Justice Department special counsel investigating his handling of classified documents thrust the issue into the spotlight after portraying Biden as an elderly man with “diminished capacities” and memory loss.
If elected, the two candidates would top the list for oldest-serving presidents by the end of their terms. Biden would be 86 years old at the end of his second term, while Trump would be 82.
With Trump’s legal proceedings as well as both candidates’ ages, what would happen in a hypothetical situation where either nominee has to drop out of the race because they become incapacitated, convicted of charges or end up in jail?
The answer largely matters when.
“I think the unprecedented nature of this is you have a former president who’s facing 91 indictments on one side and for both likely nominees, they’re old,” Josh Putnam, a political scientist who specializes in delegate selection rules and campaigns, told USA TODAY. “Actuarially speaking, something could happen to one or both of them and they may not be around through the whole process.”
Here’s how things could play out if Biden or Trump drop out of the 2024 race for the White House:
During primary season and before national conventions
Experts told USA TODAY if either candidate drops out before the national conventions − held in July for Republicans and August for Democrats − the path to finding the next nominee becomes more complicated.
Why are the conventions so important?
The national party conventions are held every presidential election year to officially select each party’s nominee.
After states hold their primaries, a certain number of delegates are allocated to a candidate based on the number of votes they received in the respective state. These delegates represent the candidate at each party’s convention. The candidate must accumulate a majority of delegate votes to become the official party nominee.
Each state allocates delegates differently depending on their system. In some cases, the candidate who wins the state receives all the state’s delegates. In other states, delegates are split based on the percentage of votes a candidate receives.
When delegates head to each party’s national convention, they are generally tied to a certain candidate through the primary and caucus process in their states.
But it can get more complicated.
In some states, Republicans have “unbound” delegates who can cast a vote for whichever candidate they choose. Democrats have their own version − “unpledged” delegates − who can only participate in the voting process if the first round is contested, meaning no candidate received the majority of votes.
In the case of a contested election, there is a second (and possibly third, fourth, fifth, etc.) round of votes − similar to the uphill battle former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., faced during the 15 rounds of voting to win the speakership last January.
Another piece that comes into play is exactly when Biden or Trump would drop out during primary season. If a candidate drops out early on before racking up a large number of delegates, other White House hopefuls may decide they want to try to win the nomination by gaining the remaining delegates.
“In other words, there’s more time for competition,” DNC member Elaine Kamarck, who is also a founding director and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said.
But if they drop out toward the end of the primaries, which end in mid-June, the number of delegates a candidate will receive is mostly set in stone.
While the primaries establish how many delegate slots a candidate receives, Putnam, who is also the founder of FHQ Strategies, a non-partisan political consulting venture, emphasized that determining the number of delegate slots does not simultaneously select the actual people who will fill those slots − a process that often lags behind primary election dates.
And this process is equally as important, he said, especially in a scenario where a presumptive nominee drops out.
“The selection of the people there matters as to who’s going to be making the decision at the convention as to who the replacement would become,” Putnam said.
For example, Putnam said the Trump campaign is working to ensure that any delegate slots Trump is allocated will be filled by loyal supporters who would back the former president regardless of any convictions he could potentially face.
In a scenario where Biden or Trump drop out before the delegate selection process concludes, Putnam said it becomes more of a “free for all” as to how state parties would fill the delegate slots. These delegates would take part in the convention and potentially nominate someone who wasn’t on the ballot.
During the national conventions
If a candidate drops out between the last primary and the night of their respective party’s nominating convention, each party reverts back to its historic roots.
Republicans would arrive in Milwaukee and Democrats in Chicago. Delegates would be “uncommitted,” meaning they are not in support of a specific candidate and have to decide who the next nominee will be.
In this scenario, prospective party nominees would visit each state’s delegation to convince them for their support.
But what about Republican candidates who ran during primaries − like former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley − and dropped out, but still accumulated a handful of delegates?
The idea that Haley could emerge as the alternate at the Republican convention if Trump is toppled by his legal woes is wishful thinking, strategists told USA TODAY. In a situation where Trump is no longer in the picture, the delegates bound to the former president could decide to back someone completely different who never ran a campaign during primary season.
At this point in the race, it’s unlikely Haley would be able to garner more delegates than Trump, specifically after the GOP’s rules changed and converted many states to a winner-take-all system for allocating delegates.
“I think it’s going to be hard for her to accumulate any more delegates. I think it’s that dire,” John Fortier, a senior fellow at the center-right think tank the American Enterprise Institute, told USA TODAY.
Fortier said if Trump were to drop out of the race before the convention, it is possible other GOP contenders who previously dropped out of the race would reactivate their campaigns in hopes of winning the Republican Party’s nomination.
After national conventions
The process varies for the Democratic and Republican national committees if their respective candidate drops out of the race after they’ve been officially nominated at the party’s convention.
Putnam said the national parties do the picking and choosing of who the replacement candidate will be.
“I think that’s probably the least messy version of this,” he said.
Both committees will hold special meetings to pick their next candidate.
A similar process happened during the 1972 conventions. Democratic presidential nominee and three-term Sen. George McGovern’s vice presidential pick, former Sen. Tom Eagleton, D-Mo., was being treated for mental illness and forced to resign from the ticket.
McGovern chose a replacement for his running mate, but it needed to be formally ratified by the DNC.
In this scenario, Kamarck said the chair makes the decision as to when the special meeting is called to order. It’s possible the chair will want to hold the meeting quickly to allow the new nominee to campaign against the opposite party, but may also choose to wait a few weeks to see if a different candidate enters the race.
At this point, it’s judgment calls per the party chair, she said.
“Closer to Election Day, it probably would be pretty smooth,” Kamarck said. “Earlier, say the end of August, other people may decide that they want to try and run and get the nomination… in other words, there’s more time for competition.”
Fortier said the timing of when a chosen party nominee drops out before Election Day could make things tricky when it comes to what name appears on the ballot. Because ballots need to be printed and in some cases sent out 45 days before Election Day, its possible the name of an ex-candidate appears on the ticket.
“There is a point at which the people you’re replacing with could not appear on the ballot that people are actually going to see when they walk into a voting booth or get their absentee ballot,” he said.
After Election Day
If either candidate drops out between Election Day and Inauguration Day, what happens next depends on whether the electoral college has already met to attest to the election results. These are later sent to the Senate for certification of the ballot.
In some states, laws require electors to vote for the winning candidate. If the declared winner drops out before the electoral college meets, these legislatures may have to change the rules so the electors’ votes bound to the winner would still count for another candidate.
Fortier said both parties can urge electors to vote for a certain candidate in the case where the original winner is incapacitated. But the Supreme Court in 2020 ruled that states can require presidential electors to vote for the candidate they pledged to support. If they don’t, the elector could be removed and replaced by another.
“You could tell those electors to vote for somebody… but maybe that new person hasn’t even really faced the American people,” Fortier said.
It becomes one of the most unclear scenarios if the president-elect becomes incapacitated in the weeks after the electors vote in mid-December but before Congress certifies the election results, Fortier said.
The responsibility then falls to Congress to count the votes and it is unclear how Congress would handle counting votes for a certain candidate who is no longer in the picture.
“It’s just harder to see what the outcome is. That’s why I say it’s a very murky and very confusing period of time for something to happen,” Fortier said.
During the weeks after Congress counts the votes and before Inauguration Day, a winning candidate’s running mate becomes the president and will be inaugurated in the case of the president-elect becoming unable to serve.
What happens if Trump is convicted?
As for Trump’s legal proceedings, there are no procedures or rules that would legally bar the former president from serving a second term if he is prosecuted, convicted or serving jail time.
Until recently, the idea that a presidential candidate would be convicted or in prison would be disqualifying among voters, Chris Edelson, an assistant professor of government at American University, said. But regardless of the norms, there is nothing illegal about it.
“We’re headed toward this really uncharted situation,” he said.
It has happened before. In 1920, socialist candidate Eugene Debs ran for president while serving a 10-year prison sentence for sedition. Debs received nearly one million votes.
Edelson said while there is no realistic chance Trump will be in prison in 2025, he could be convicted over the course of the next year.
“There’s plenty of time for a trial to take place,” he said.
If Trump is convicted, it’s unclear if the delegates bound to the former president are required to vote for him if he doesn’t drop out of the race, which he has repeatedly indicated he will not do.
Individual states may unbind delegates from a candidate, but only if they withdraw from running, according to RNC rules.
“Whoever the voters choose is the appropriate nominee,” RNC chair Ronna McDaniel said on CNN’s State of the Union in November when asked if Trump would be the appropriate nominee for the Republican party if convicted. “…As party chair, I’m going to support who the voters choose. And, yes, if they choose Donald Trump.”
Amanda Smith is a dedicated U.S. correspondent with a passion for uncovering the stories that shape the nation. With a background in political science, she provides in-depth analysis and insightful commentary on domestic affairs, ensuring readers are well-informed about the latest developments across the United States.
