WHO predicts cancer cases will rise 77% by 2050
About 1 in 5 men and 1 in 5 women will develop cancer in their lifetime. “It serves as a warning that something has to be done.”
Scripps News
The release of 2022 cancer data gives the latest look into which types of cancer are most prevalent around the world as population growth expects to drive global cases as much as 77% by 2050.
There were nearly 20 million new cancer cases and 9.7 million deaths from cancer in 2022, said the study published Thursday in the journal CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, part of the American Cancer Society Journals. Findings were also disclosed by the World Health Organization in February.
Those numbers indicate that an estimated one in five people will be diagnosed with cancer in their life, and that will lead to death in one in nine men and one in 12 women, according to the report. Keeping the rates the same and projecting into the future with population growth and aging, the study says new cancer cases will increase 77% to 35 million by the year 2050.
“The overall scale of cancer and the diversity of cancer profiles by world region and human development level reemphasize the need for a global escalation of targeted cancer control measures,” the study concludes. “Investments in prevention, including the targeting of key risk factors for cancer…can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses and save many lives worldwide.”
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Publication reveals most common types of cancer
The publication utilized the GLOBOCAN database to study 36 types of cancer in 185 countries in 2022. The following are the overall most common types of cancer for both sexes combined, though within the sexes there are notable differences. For example, breast cancer amongst females is more common than lung cancer, a flip from the general population ranking.
- Lung cancer – 12.4%
- Female breast cancer – 11.6%
- Colorectum – 9.6%
- Prostate – 7.3%
- Stomach – 4.9%
The 10 leading cancer types account for approximately two thirds of the total cases globally. Liver, thyroid, cervix uteri, bladder and non-Hodgkin lymphoma make up the rest of the top 10 leading cancer types amongst both sexes.
Likelihood of cancer changes based on where you live
The prevalence of cancer, mortality rates and leading cancer types change country by country. Here is the breakdown by geographic region, according to the study:
- Asia – 49.2% of new cases, 56.1% of deaths
- Africa – 5.9% of new cases, 7.8% of deaths
- Oceania – 1.4% of cases, 0.8% of deaths
- Europe – 22.4% of cases, 20.4% of deaths
- Americas – 21.1% of cases, 14.9% of deaths
A country’s economic and societal development also changes the likelihood someone will be diagnosed with cancer. The higher a country’s Human Development Index (HDI) level, which is measured by human health, longevity and standards of living, the more likely its residents are to develop cancer, the report states.
Cancer to increase 77% by 2050 globally
The report says that the world’s growing population will be the biggest driver in cancer cases, and countries with high HDIs will see a large increase in actual numbers. But low HDI countries stand to see a remarkable relative increase of new cases, 142%, by 2050.
Lung cancer, already the leading cause of cancer mortality globally, could further increase in occurrence rate among less developed countries. The report attributes this to the “stage of the tobacco epidemic” in any given country and its link to lung cancer rates. For example, the lung cancer rates in the U.K. and the U.S. declined after prevalence of smoking waned in those countries, but not until 20-25 years later. But in countries undergoing economic transition and seeing a greater uptake of smoking, the lung cancer rates are likely to continue to climb for the next few decades without mitigation.
The study concludes that targeting risk factors, including smoking, obesity and infections is needed to not only save lives, but provide economic and societal benefits.
Rachel Carter is a health and wellness expert dedicated to helping readers lead healthier lives. With a background in nutrition, she offers evidence-based advice on fitness, nutrition, and mental well-being.
