Stocks Fall as Fed Rate-Cut Doubts Creep In: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Stocks declined and the dollar rose after comments by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dampened hopes of speedy interest rate cuts from the US central bank.

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S&P 500 futures shed about 0.3%, indicating that the US equity benchmark will snap a six-day winning streak, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 index posted a similar loss. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped below $80 a barrel for the first time in more than two months. The dollar strengthened.

Kashkari, speaking in an interview on Fox News on Monday, said it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation. He added that while there have been three months of promising data on inflation, it isn’t enough.

“The Kashkari comment has injected a sense of reality back into the market, which had got carried away thinking that policy easing was just around the corner,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at brokerage Equiti Capital.

Meanwhile, bond markets rallied, led by the UK, as Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill hinted rate cuts may be on the table by the middle of 2024 and German industrial output figures suggested that recession isn’t far off. Ten-year gilt yields fell seven basis points to 4.31% and the rate on 10-year Treasuries slipped two basis points to 4.62%.

“Pill has kind of gone against the narrative of the BOE message last week. That’s clearly better news for bonds,” Cole added.

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Among individual stock movers, oil producers dragged down European equity benchmarks, with Shell Plc and BP Plc sliding more than 1%.

UBS Group AG added as much as 5% after reporting stronger-than-expected client inflows in its wealth-management business. Watches of Switzerland Group Plc, the top UK Rolex retailer, jumped 10% after saying it expects to more than double sales and profits by 2028.

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Earlier, South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 2.3% after Monday’s rally that was triggered by a short-selling ban. Australia resumed policy tightening and raised its inflation forecast, a sign that central banks are not necessarily done hiking interest rates.

Key events this week:

• China forex reserves, Tuesday

• Eurozone PPI, Tuesday

• US trade, Tuesday

• UBS earnings, Tuesday

• Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and his Dallas counterpart Lorie Logan speak, Tuesday

• Eurozone retail sales, Wednesday

• Germany CPI, Wednesday

• BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday

• US wholesale inventories, Wednesday

• New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday

• Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday

• BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday

• US initial jobless claims, Thursday

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington, Thursday

• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday

• UK industrial production, GDP, Friday

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday

• US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3% as of 1:01 p.m. London time

• S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%

• Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed

• Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%

• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4%

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.9%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%

• The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0678

• The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 150.55 per dollar

• The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.2911 per dollar

• The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2297

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $34,768

• Ether fell 0.8% to $1,878.23

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.62%

• Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.70%

• Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.31%

Commodities

• Brent crude fell 2.1% to $83.36 a barrel

• Spot gold fell 1% to $1,959.17 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Tassia Sipahutar.

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