The trade deadline has come and gone, and … it wasn’t bad, right? We get a decent serving of deals, some more important than others, and while it didn’t fully live up to the hype, deadlines never quite do. There are ways in which we could give the annual market a boost, but this one delivered some interesting moves.
It also should probably shuffle up our rankings, although I’m still working through that part. Let’s dig through a few of the teams that made the strongest case to move up or down based on what they did or didn’t do.
Bonus five: Teams I’ve changed my views on the most after the deadline
5. The Western Canadian teams — Yes, we’re one entry in and I’m already cheating by cramming three teams into one slot. What can I tell you, it was a busy deadline.
I like what the Oilers did, landing Adam Henrique and some solid depth. I haven’t had them in my top five for a few weeks, but they’re hovering right around it, and maybe this is the week I find a way to get them back in. The Canucks are a tougher call after a quiet deadline day, albeit one that came after they swung big on Elias Lindholm in January. That move feels fascinating in hindsight, with Lindholm struggling early in his Vancouver tenure and even seeing his name pop up in deadline rumors, which has to make for an interesting dynamic going forward. Oh, and they didn’t sign Phil Kessel, so boo this team.
As for the Jets, the good news is that they had a solid deadline, especially if you include a Sean Monahan deal that’s looking like a better fit than I’d thought it would be. The bad news is that Dallas and Colorado both improved too, so finishing first in the Central feels absolutely crucial right now. And that’s before you try to figure out how to get out of a Western Conference where everyone loaded up except the Kings.
4. New Jersey Devils — From the sounds of things, they tried to land their goaltender. It didn’t happen, so we got some version of Plan B, with Jake Allen and Kaapo Kähkōnen. I don’t hate the Allen move as much as others might have, and sometimes you have to pivot. But this was a backup plan with a little too much emphasis on the backups for my tastes, and combined with the Toffoli deal, it sure felt like the Devils were taking a knee. I’ve been reluctant to write them off all year long, most notably when I refused to even consider that they could miss the playoffs back around U.S. Thanksgiving. It looks like I was wrong.
3. Boston Bruins — At times, the days leading up to the deadline felt like a game of chicken between the Bruins and Leafs, with a first-round matchup looking likely and upgrades available for both rosters. Neither team blinked in the end, settling for depth adds, although it sure sounds like Don Sweeney was aiming higher. Boston has to feel good about that playoff meeting after beating the Leafs twice during the week, but you wonder what comes after that given they seemed to lose ground to the Panthers and Hurricanes.
2. Carolina Hurricanes — I didn’t love the Evgeny Kuznetsov gamble as much as others seemed to; even at 50 percent retained I think there’s a chance they’re stuck with a lemon next year, and they moved a decent pick for him. But these rankings are for this season only, meaning we don’t really care about the pick or next year’s cap. And for this year, Kuznetsov is worth the risk. Adding Jake Guentzel is of course a major boost. And the fact their only real rival for division supremacy was more conservative is enough to move the Hurricanes into Metro favorite status.
Jake Guentzel is a Hurricane, according to @PierreVLeBrun.
Carolina is sending Pittsburgh a conditional first-round pick that becomes Philly’s second rounder if the Canes do not make the Stanley Cup Final. pic.twitter.com/ERl04V2fwI
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) March 8, 2024
Hey, by the way, can we just acknowledge that the big pick in this deal is not a conditional first? If a team has to make the Final for the pick to move up, that’s a conditional second by any reasonable definition, right?
1. Vegas Golden Knights — There’s no question the Knights were the star of the deadline, landing the trio of Tomáš Hertl, Noah Hanifin and Anthony Mantha. It’s almost become a cliché at this point — other GMs whine about how hard their job is while the Knights go out and get every star on the open market, and occasionally one we didn’t think was.
The truly fascinating element here is that this team still isn’t any kind of sure thing to make the playoffs. It’s hard to imagine them missing out now, and it would be a complete disaster if they did. But a look at the standings says it’s on the table, especially with Hertl still out for a while. So what do you do if you’re ranking Cup favorites? The Knights have to be high on any list if they make it, but there is a non-zero chance they don’t skew the equation.
So what did I do? Let’s get to the ratings and find out …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Got to be honest, I did not know that a coach who gets ejected from the game can just decline the penalty.
Torts didn’t want to leave the bench after being ejected. 😳 pic.twitter.com/VTt70Bho49
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 10, 2024
He got two games for this, by the way, which is twice as many as coaches used to get for throwing benches. What can we say, times change.
5. Boston Bruins (38-13-15, +43 true goals differential*) — It’s a drop, but not quite out of the top five. I’m not sure beating the Penguins tells us much of anything anymore, but sweeping the Leafs probably should. The week was enough to briefly move them back ahead of the Panthers in total points for a few hours on Saturday, which is a reminder that the Atlantic may not be as settled as it seems to be.
4. Dallas Stars (40-17-9 +42) — We need a Central team here, I think, although I have no idea which one. I do like the Jets, and they clearly have a plan, but this feels like a situation where we may not have clarity until the final weekend. For now, give me the hottest team in the division.
3. Vegas Golden Knights (34-23-7, +16) — Too high? This might be too high, especially for a team that could still miss the playoffs entirely, which I think we can all agree would be hilarious. But man, it must be exhilarating to be a Knights player when you see that much talent walking through the door. (Or limping, I guess, in the case of Hertl.) And to be a fan? Most of us can only imagine.
In the meantime, I’m guessing you have some thoughts on the LTIR that you’d like to share. Can’t wait!
2. Carolina Hurricanes (38-19-6, +37) — I’m moving them into Boston’s spot, and ahead of the Rangers. The risk of deadline overreaction is real, as we’ve already seen, and I reserve the right to overcorrect next week after they lose to the Panthers on Thursday. But for now, I’m on board.
If you missed it, here’s Don Waddell walking Joe through his deadline thinking.
1. Florida Panthers (44-17-4, +63) — I didn’t include them on my list of teams that changed my opinion of them, mainly because they were already as high as they could go. But their deadline was impressive, especially their getting Vladimir Tarasenko for next to nothing. Sure, the Senators didn’t have much choice. But if a Panthers franchise we all used to mock is now the preferred destination for NHL stars, that’s an achievement of its own.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: New York Islanders — Huh. Maybe the coaching change did work after all.
It hadn’t seemed like it in the first few weeks after the arrival of Patrick Roy. While the Islanders won his debut, they followed that with losses in three straight, six of eight and eight of 11. And with that, their season was over, an inevitable playoff miss for an aging team that hasn’t won a round since 2021.
Well, hold on. With six straight wins, the Islanders are right back in the running for a playoff spot that nobody in the East seems to want to step up and grab. Now they’re a better than 50 percent bet, according to Dom’s model.
That’s impressive. Apparently not impressive enough to convince Lou Lamoriello to add any reinforcements at the deadline, which was a mild surprise. But with the team tight against the cap and lacking much in the way of prospects to move, standing pat wasn’t a bad option. Besides, sometimes it makes sense to not mess with what’s working.
And it is working, with the win streak including decisions over the Stars and Bruins. They’re healthy, as they have been for most of the year. The offense is clicking, with five goals or more in six of their last 13 games, compared to just seven in their first 50. And oh yeah, Ilya Sorokin is Ilya Sorokining again. If he got red hot in the playoffs, would you want to play these guys?
We’ll see if anyone has to worry about that. They still have to deal with the Red Wings, Flyers or Lightning, and Tampa added at the deadline. But the teams behind New York — including the Penguins, Capitals and even the Devils — subtracted, and the Sabres are too far back to catch up unless the Islanders stumble.
Tonight’s matchup with the Kings will be a tough one, especially on the road on short rest, so nothing is guaranteed. But the Sabres and Senators are up next, so there are points on the board for the taking. It’s not bad at all for a team that was largely written off just a few weeks ago.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last, and the best lottery odds for Macklin Celebrini.
I didn’t mention the Penguins in the top section because nothing that happened this week made me change my mind about them, but yikes, Yohe is not holding back.
Also, kudos to the Wild for getting weird yesterday, but the fact so many of you didn’t know the secret loser point rule because you apparently don’t read everything I write makes me sad.
5. Arizona Coyotes (26-34-5, -28) — Oof. I’m not sure anyone had a worse deadline, as a team that had loaded up on potential rentals and barely turned that into anything worthwhile. Worse, there are reports that those low prices were due to Arizona not retaining any salary, which just feels like a team being cheap. If so, that’s not a GM issue, but it’s still an issue, and I’ll put them ahead of the Senators even though Ottawa managed to lose to the Sharks.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets (22-32-10, -41) — It was a quiet deadline without anything especially bold or creative, which is exactly what you’d expect from a team that doesn’t know who their next GM will be. On the ice, the team’s been a little bit better lately with wins over the Oilers and Golden Knights, which is a positive until you realize they could still drop behind the Senators, Coyotes and Sabres on the lottery list.
3. Anaheim Ducks (23-38-3, -62) — Pat Verbeek didn’t make the big moves, like trading Frank Vatrano or even Trevor Zegras, but he had a solid deadline. It was all your basic rentals-for-picks stuff, sure, but those deals matter in a rebuild.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (17-43-5, -95) — They basically sat out the deadline, which is weird for a rebuilding team until you realize they’re so stripped down that they really had nothing to move.
1. San Jose Sharks (16-40-7, -107) — I think I like the Hertl deal more than most. Maybe that’s not even saying much, because I’m seeing some downright negative reviews for Mike Grier. On the surface, it makes sense — he just traded away his best player, retained salary for six years to do it, and still had to cough up a few picks to make it work.
But those six years are the key. Hertl’s a great player, or at least he has been, and I’m betting he will be again in Vegas if he’s healthy. But he’s coming off knee surgery, he’s 30 years old, and he’s signed through 2030. Guys like that can go from being tradable assets to completely unmovable very quickly, as the Sharks well know. (See Marc-Édouard Vlasic and Logan Couture, for example.) Grier knows his team won’t be any good during what’s left of Hertl’s prime, and he apparently figured it was better to be a little too early than a little too late. He got a first and a good prospect, and out from under a contract that might not have made sense for him sooner than later. I liked the move.
Not ranked: Buffalo Sabres — They’re well into need-a-miracle territory for any playoff hopes, and they did enough minor selling at the deadline to signal that they know that. It’s going to be another slogging stretch run on the way to a 12th straight early offseason, and the offseason is going to be a big one.
So sure, sad times in Buffalo, as always. But also fascinating ones, because they made the single most interesting deal of the deadline. Sending Casey Mittelstadt to Colorado for Bowen Byram was a genuine jaw-dropper, the sort of deal you almost forget is still legal in the NHL. It was, dare we say it, a hockey trade. And it’s one we might look back on years down the road as having a clear winner and loser.
That’s not to say both teams can’t end up happy here, since the Avalanche were clearly moving from a position of strength to fill a top-six need. That makes sense. The Sabres’ side of the equation was a little bit murkier, as they’ve already spent a pair of No. 1 picks on the blue line. But Kevyn Adams clearly doesn’t believe you can have too many elite blueliners, and plenty of hockey folks would agree.
GO DEEPER
What can Bowen Byram bring to the Sabres? Dylan Cozens and Peyton Krebs have an idea
Will it work out? We don’t know, which is the beauty of it. Between this and the surprise Cutter Gauthier/Jamie Drysdale swap from January, it’s been an intriguing season for armchair GMs who like being right years after the fact.
For now, the question for the Sabres is what an extension for Byram looks like; they can sign him to one as soon as July 1, although his contract runs another year and he’ll still be an RFA after that. Adams should have quite the blue line by then. Whether it will be in the service of a playoff contender is a bigger concern, and at some point, this team has to stop spinning its wheels. Adams would seem to have a plan to get them there, and it’s one that apparently doesn’t rule out some big swings. That’s all well and good, but Sabres fans deserve something more. It will be fun for the rest of us to see whether or not this deal moves them in the right direction.
Anyway, at least on Saturday they managed to beat the Oilers twice.
Unreal scene in Buffalo right now…
The play on the game-winner was determined to be offsides, so after leaving the ice both teams have to return 😱 https://t.co/P0UkYUICCa pic.twitter.com/N6rfpSjSiR
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) March 9, 2024
Great replay system you have there, NHL, no notes.
(Photos of Noah Hanifin and Adam Henrique: Candice Ward and Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
Daniel Miller is a sports fanatic who lives and breathes athletics. His coverage spans from major league championships to local sports events, delivering up-to-the-minute updates and in-depth analysis for sports enthusiasts.
