What to watch for in Week 15

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 15 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

BINGE

DALLAS COWBOYS at BUFFALO BILLS

The stakes couldn’t be higher on both sides. The Buffalo Bills need every win they can get down the stretch to make the playoffs after stumbling at the mid-point of the season. Their margin for error is at a stone zero.

The Cowboys are in a race with the Eagles to win the NFC East and gained some ground after wiping the floor with their division rival last week. Not to mention, a quality win over Josh Allen and co. would go a long way toward cementing Dak Prescott’s MVP legacy.

The name of the game for the Cowboys quarterback in this one will be to continue to elevate the non-CeeDee Lamb pass catchers. Prescott has hit Jake Ferguson in stride perfectly over the last month to set the aggressive tight end up for YAC chances. He pinned the ball perfectly on Michael Gallup for a vertical shot last week against the Eagles’ weaker cover corners. Those are MVP types of moments and the Cowboys will need them this week.

Biggest Storyline: Can the Bills keep pushing for a playoff spot? Every game is a must-win for the Bills. They’re already in playoff mode, as Josh Allen told the CBS broadcast last week. Buffalo should smell blood in the water in the AFC. Outside of the Ravens in the top seed and, ironically, the Browns, no one is playing their best football in that conference. If the Bills can get in the dance, they’ll be dangerous. They face a significant possible stumbling block in a red-hot Cowboys team this week but there are a few matchup advantages on their side.

Stat you need to know: James Cook is second on the Bills with 169 receiving yards since Joe Brady took over and has been targeted on 36% of his routes.

Player in a smash spot: Stefon Diggs. Despite a painfully slow stretch of late, this is the moment Diggs gets back on track. Cowboys CB1 Stephon Gilmore played quite well against A.J. Brown last week. I’d say they dueled to a draw and Brown still cleared 90 yards. He should cover Diggs more often in this game and we’ve seen Gilmore at this stage of his career struggle with quick-twitch route runners more than the physical perimeter receivers. On the other side, Daron Bland can struggle and bite on deceptive routes, which are Diggs’ specialty.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

As we enter this game, the trajectory of these two teams couldn’t be any more different.

The Ravens had one of their best offensive performances against the Rams last week coming off their bye. That unit is clicking at the right time. The defense struggled against Sean McVay and co. but that’s more a credit to the head coach’s efforts and the play of his quarterback right now. Nothing I’ve seen from Jacksonville gives me confidence they can take advantage of this Baltimore stop unit.

Biggest Storyline: Trevor Lawrence’s health. Lawrence had the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play percentage in Week 14, per Fantasy Points Data. The only guys higher: Drew Lock, C.J. Stroud, Easton Stick, Desmond Ridder and Bailey Zappe. That is not where you want to be.

Lawrence was not put in a position to succeed last week coming off a brutal Monday injury. Much was made of the receivers’ miscommunication this week but Lawrence put the ball in harm’s way quite a bit. This entire passing game needs to be better if this team is going to make a run.

Stat you need to know: Odell Beckham Jr. is fifth on the team in routes run since Week 10 but leads Baltimore in receiving yards. This “less is more” approach has worked with the veteran receiver recently. The Ravens are getting the best out of Beckham as they push for the playoffs by not overworking him and gassing his legs out. He’s an excellent fantasy start, albeit a volatile one, against a weaker Jaguars secondary.

Player in a smash spot: Zay Flowers. The rookie leads the team in routes run with 144 since Week 10. It’s a wide gap between him and Isaiah Likely with 96. Flowers has been underutilized in the intermediate area of the field this season but we saw a correction in Week 14 cooking out of the Ravens’ bye.

Communication issues were rife in the Jaguars secondary against Cleveland last week. This pass defense has been a problem all season. Flowers is going to continue on a tear as he finishes his rookie season.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Quarterback issues surround two NFC playoff teams from last season as they prepare to meet in a Monday Night Football flex affair.

The Eagles simply aren’t getting the same play out of Jalen Hurts this season, particularly in the running game. Tush-push plays aside, there has been no attempt to integrate him in the designed run game of late and he isn’t scrambling at the same clip. Hurts is likely dealing with injuries but that dropoff in the dropback pass game and his impact on the ground has been a massive problem for the offense. It’s trickled down into the run game, making D’Andre Swift a difficult fantasy bet even in an ideal matchup this week.

Meanwhile, as of now, we aren’t sure if Geno Smith can return for the Seahawks on Monday night or if we’ll get another Drew Lock game. Lock showed he’s a significant downgrade from Smith, even if he hasn’t been as good as last season, but can still get the ball to the playmakers. That’s good for fantasy, but not good enough for the Seahawks to make a come-from-behind playoff run.

Biggest Storyline: Where are the Eagles at this point? At this stage, it seems pretty easy to say the Eagles were winning games at a rate above their skill level.

That doesn’t mean they’re a bad team; far from it. This operation is still capable of making a run in the playoffs simply because they have great players at premium positions. However, for the time being, there does appear to be a tier break between Dallas and San Francisco down to Philadelphia.

Stat you need to know: Zach Charbonnet led the Seattle backfield in carries with nine, while Kenneth Walker led the backfield with a 16% target share. That’s exactly the opposite of what you’d expect! It’s hard to feel great about either back heading into a matchup with a strong run-stop front as a home underdog (+3).

Player in a smash spot: The Seahawks receivers. On the flip side, this is a week to chase the ceiling for the Seahawks’ passing game. The Eagles’ secondary has been abused by outside and slot receivers this season. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf (prior to ejection) are coming off good games and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the team in targets. Any or all of these guys could hit in Week 15.

STREAM

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

Biggest Storyline: The state of the Vikings offense. Minnesota is in a good bit of chaos for a team that currently occupies the sixth seed in the NFC Playoff picture. The Josh Dobbs fairytale is deep in the dirt at this point. Not only was Dobbs benched for Nick Mullens last week, but he’ll be the third quarterback behind Jaren Hall this week. Yikes!

Mullens doesn’t exactly have a high ceiling but they’ll throw the ball more with him under center simply because he’s not the same scramble threat as Dobbs. That will boost the target projections for Justin Jefferson, who will return after missing most of last week with a chest injury. The Vikings’ best hope down the stretch is for Mullens to be a high-end distributor and allow Jefferson to take over games while the defense creates havoc.

Stat you need to know: Chase Brown and Joe Mixon have amassed 80 and 79 yards, respectively, on screen passes since Week 13. These two will be critical in beating Brian Flores’ heavy blitz concepts on defense. On the other side, Ty Chandler played a season-high 56% of the snaps in Week 14 and tied his season-high with 15 touches. He will draw the start with Alexander Mattison out and could be one of many backup running backs to bring fantasy managers a playoff win going against the Bengals’ 26th-ranked rushing success rate defense.

Player in a smash spot: T.J. Hockenson. Mullens targeted Hockenson on a whopping 31% of his passes after getting in the game last week, with a 100% completion rate. Now, of course, that was without Jefferson but Hockenson has a great matchup here anyway. We’ve talked often this year about the struggles the Bengals defense has experienced down the spine. The fact that they have allowed the most catches and yards to the tight end position is an excellent reflection of this issue.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Biggest Storyline: Can the Steelers right the ship? Since firing Matt Canada, the Steelers rank 10th in offensive success rate and 23rd in EPA per play. Some of the tweaks have worked but they’re still not making big plays in the pass game, the run game has now stumbled and the quarterback play has been abysmal. We have fans in the stands chanting for Mason Rudolph. Like, what are we doing?

Straight up, we’re at a point where the players have to step up and make plays. The coaching is what it is. Mitchell Trubisky isn’t going to become someone else. These wide receivers and running backs need to play up to their potential. The receivers can’t teleport themselves the ball but still, there can be no half efforts or missed opportunities. That’s been an issue throughout this season.

Stat you need to know:

Why has Michael Pittman Jr. been a WR1 this season? He’s good at the game — not enough people recognized that coming into this season — and coaching matters. Remember this story next year when looking at receivers in similar situations ahead of fantasy drafts.

Player in a smash spot: God help me, but it’s Zack Moss. Look, you just don’t find many running backs who play almost every snap and get workhorse-level touches. Moss has played on 89% of the Colts’ snaps the last two weeks and averaged 21.5 opportunities per contest. He actually had a rushing score called back due to a hold. If that was on the board, we’d be having a very different conversation. I’m trusting the volume and the process and calling for an RB1 output from Moss in Week 15 against a Steelers defense that just gave up a similar grind-it-out game to Ezekiel Elliott last week.

DENVER BRONCOS at DETROIT LIONS

Biggest Storyline: Jared Goff’s slump. We know who Goff is at this stage of his career so it should be no surprise he struggles this mightily under pressure. Per Pro Football Focus, Goff has a four-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season. He doesn’t create and his mind gets muddled when heat hits him. Since Week 11, Goff has been under pressure on 42.6% of his dropbacks, the ninth-highest rate among passers. The offensive line is supposed to be a strength of this team but injuries to Frank Ragnow and some inconsistencies have taken their toll. This has to get corrected down the stretch or the Lions offense we knew from early in the season will be a mere distant memory.

Stat you need to know: The Broncos are the fourth-best defense in EPA per play allowed since Week 4. Ever since the Dolphins debacle, this unit has tightened up. Vance Joseph has these guys playing much more disciplined ball and attacking. Denver gets turnovers and plays solid coverage on the back end. It’s not a smooth landing spot for a struggling Goff.

Player in a smash spot: The Lions’ running backs. Despite being 1-2 the last three weeks the Lions are still averaging 141 rushing yards per game. The Denver defensive turnaround has primarily been in the secondary where they’re hawking turnovers and clamping down in coverage. They can still be had on the ground. With Goff struggling, this looks like a prime spot for Detroit to put the ball in the hands of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery as much as possible.

CHICAGO BEARS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

Biggest Storyline: The Flacco-naissance. We’ve seen Cleveland check in with their two season-high dropbacks over the expectation rate the last two weeks per Fantasy Life Data: five and seven percent. That’s not a coincidence. Kevin Stefanski is a good offensive coach and having a steady veteran in place who still has a whip for an arm in Joe Flacco has allowed him to open up and express his playbook fully. Flacco isn’t doing anything crazy out there either — he’s just running the offense. That offense, despite all the other quarterbacks being unable to show it, is quite good and has many players we should want to start in fantasy. It’s a tough matchup this week but these guys have a better path to a ceiling with Flacco under center, just like Cleveland has a better path to a postseason run now than ever before this year.

Stat you need to know: Chicago’s defense is sixth in EPA per play allowed and ninth in success rate since Week 7. There are a few things at play here. We know the Bears coaching staff suffered through some mysterious changes on defense earlier in the season. After a Week 6 loss to the Vikings, Matt Eberflus hired former Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow to the staff. Snow did some good things in Carolina but was swept out with Matt Rhule last season. He’s brought some life to Eberflus’ usually static defense and the whole unit got a jolt with Montez Sweat added at the deadline. This is just a good defense now, full-stop.

Player in a smash spot: DJ Moore. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Browns run man coverage on 38% of their plays, fourth-most in the NFL. Moore and Fields have been lights-out working against man coverage this season.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

Biggest Storyline: Can the Buccaneers truly gain some ground in the NFC South? The Saints and Falcons are in winnable spots this weekend so Tampa Bay cannot afford a slip as they currently hold the fourth seed in the NFC. Going on the road and beating a quality opponent shouldn’t be too much to ask, not that anything is easy in the NFC South. The Baker Mayfield-Mike Evans connection was quiet last week but that could come roaring back against a Packers defense dealing with Jaire Alexander’s absence. Rachaad White matches up extremely well against this toothless Green Bay run-stop crew.

Stat you need to know: Jordan Love’s 15.7% off-target rate ranked 22nd among QBs last week, per Fantasy Points Data. While Week 14 wasn’t Love’s best showing and did officially end his recent hot streak, he wasn’t the only person to let the team down. Some youthful receiver mistakes cropped up again. The play-calling was a bit curious for, what I felt like, the first time all season. And remember, this offense is dealing with injuries. Love had some pretty brutal inaccurate misfires but progression isn’t linear and this is a week to get back on track.

Players in a smash spot: Both passing games, perhaps? The Bucs allow the second-highest fantasy points per dropback in zone coverage, per Fantasy Points Data. Love and whichever receivers end up suiting up for this team amid a rash of injuries can take advantage of that secondary. Conversely, Green Bay’s defense was embarrassed in a big spot last week. Not an unfamiliar refrain with Joe Barry’s unit. This game could shoot over its 42-point projected total.

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

Biggest Storyline: Tyreek Hill’s injury. The dynamic receiver was and is a legitimate MVP candidate, and his absence during patches of the Monday night game only made that clearer. He’s truly a transformative player who flips the math and opens up the entire unit. Without him, this suddenly becomes an ordinary offense. At some point, it would be nice if the Jaylen Waddle of 2022 could return and make some big plays in this passing game but so far, he’s had just a solid season. In addition to Hill, De’Von Achane is in danger of missing this game. The fragility of the Dolphins’ ecosystem is beginning to unfortunately rear its head as we head down the stretch. Hopefully, they can get Hill healthy and right the ship.

Stat you need to know: Tua Tagovailoa’s 13.2% sack rate on Monday Night Football was the highest of the season. We have harped on how the quarterback’s absence sank this team last season and will spend a ton of time talking about what losing Hill would mean to the offense but not enough attention has been paid to the line. Terron Armstead missing time last year was just as consequential as Tua’s absence and you just cannot count on the left tackle to be available at this stage. More injuries have struck that unit beyond Armstead this year and the Tennessee Titans worked them over last week. Walking into a matchup with the Jets defense this week is troubling. The -9.5 spread in favor of Miami looks fishy, at best.

Players in a smash spot: Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall combined for 64% of the targets in Week 14. If Zach Wilson can play at the level he did for chunks of last week, these two guys can return to must-start fantasy status. The outlook is certainly better with Wilson than it was with Tim Boyle.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Biggest Storyline: Continued focus on the Chiefs offense. After a postgame meltdown in the wake of yet another brutal Kadarius Toney mistake, we’re hyper-focused on this scoring unit. The receiver room is what is and it’s not changing. So many of Kansas City’s bets — Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, Skyy Moore as a Round 2 pick or taking the plunge on the Toney reclamation project — have not worked out. The run game had its moments against Buffalo but is a bit less predictable and powerful without Isiah Pacheco. That’s an issue against a Patriots team that still stops the run quite well.

Stat you need to know: Patrick Mahomes has had his second- and third-lowest fantasy point totals of the season in the last two weeks. His 4.7% touchdown rate is the lowest of his career; he averaged 6.5% from 2018 to 2022. The offense is still a good down-to-down unit (fifth in dropback success rate) but the problem lies in the lack of big plays and scoring chances slicing at Mahomes’ production. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are not enough … and no one is coming to save this unit.

Player in a smash spot: Ezekiel Elliott. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Patriots’ back was second among all players at the position in expected fantasy points. He took 91% of the snaps, handled 88% of the team carries and had a 28.6% target share.

What a world we live in.

Zeke has one of the best roles among any fantasy back locked in as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is out. He’s a plug-and-play option with this utilization. Party like it’s 2016.

NEW YORK GIANTS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Biggest Storyline: The Vibes Bowl. No one had a better take on this matchup than NFL Network’s Gregg Rosenthal:

If you watched the Giants’ Monday night win over the Packers you know immaculate doesn’t even begin to describe the vibes around the team right now. The defense was causing havoc, Saquon Barkley was getting back to fantasy RB1 status and Wan’Dale Robinson was making plays; he’s a nice possible 2024 sleeper right there. Beyond DeVito, Brian Daboll and co. have this team playing well even though the season slipped away.

If you’ve watched any Saints game or paid attention to any of the rhetoric around the quarterback right now, you know those vibes are bad. Does any of this matter to the on-field product? We’ll find out. The Saints can keep themselves in the mix for the woeful NFC South divisional title. They should be able to beat a Giants team with less talent than them. I’m not writing that in pen.

Stat you need to know: Tommy DeVito led all quarterbacks in QBR last week. If you’re just looking at his passing stats, remember that QBR rewards quarterbacks for their work on the ground and avoiding sacks. DeVito ripped off 10-71 as a rusher and took no sacks against the Packers. Beyond the fun story and all that, the Giants really did allow DeVito to let it rip last week. It was just about three games ago they weren’t even letting this guy throw the ball downfield.

He’s not just a gimmick. He’s a guy cementing his career as a long-time backup quarterback, at a bare minimum, right before our eyes.

Player in a smash spot: Rashid Shaheed. It sounds like the speedy receiver will make his return to the field this week. Just in time, as Chris Olave popped up with an ankle injury on Thursday’s injury report. Regardless, there’s already a massive opening for targets in the New Orleans’ pass-catching corps. The Giants are 30th in sacks so far this season so perhaps Carr will have time to find Shaheed downfield.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at LOS ANGELES RAMS

Biggest Storyline: The Rams’ playoff push. Sean McVay truly has done an excellent job in constructing this offense and remaking the overall Rams team in the wake of 2022’s disaster season. What was once an outside zone-heavy run game has been scrapped and rebuilt into a man-blocking duo run game that brings out the best in Kyren Williams. That’s just one big feather in McVay’s 2023 cap. McVay said he returned to coaching not to chase more glory but to find joy in simply the act of teaching football. The fruits of that labor are seen on the field for this team and it would be a great story if it was rewarded with a playoff berth in the NFC.

Stat you need to know: Sam Howell has one passing to four rushing touchdowns in the last three games. The Howell passing warhorse has hit a snag in the last month or so. His fantasy production has stayed afloat thanks to the rushing touchdowns. That makes me nervous if he’s a streaming option for managers in a Week 15 date against Aaron Donald and co.

Players in a smash spot: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Stafford leads the league with 10 TD passes over the last three weeks. All that positive regression we were waiting for when he played good ball earlier in the season has fully hit. This trio will face a Commanders’ defense that ranks dead last in EPA per dropback allowed. This could be the matchup that tilts Week 15 fantasy contests.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

Biggest Storyline: Brock Purdy’s MVP pursuit. Dak Prescott is the current betting favorite to win MVP but the pure statistical case for Purdy is somewhat overwhelming, as Dalton Del Don lays out:

This matchup against the Cardinals doesn’t set up as much of a resume-building spot considering the 49ers are a 12.5-point road favorite. However, Purdy can continue to further the stats-based argument by dropping a hammer on these NFC West rivals and helping to cement the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Also, he can pad the resume so that if he does enjoy a signature win down the line — against the Ravens on Christmas, for example — he’ll be in prime position to further his case. Like it or not, that’s how this award works.

Stat you need to know: Trey McBride ranks seventh in target share since Week 8 behind only: Michael Pittman Jr., CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson and just one ahead of Tyreek Hill. We’re seeing something even better than a breakout for McBride. This is an ascension to rarified air for tight ends. Even if a tougher spot, he seems like a top-five tight end on the board.

Player in a smash spot: Deebo Samuel. Everyone on this 49ers offense is in a smash spot every week, but this is setting up nicely for another Deebo Samuel game. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Cardinals play two-high coverage on 64% of their snaps, the second-highest rate in the NFL. With the middle of the field open, Samuel should have plenty of space to rip up the defense on crossing routes and get rolling for YAC. On the flip side, if you’re desperate, the 49ers’ single-high coverage could open up some big plays for outside receivers like Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson, if they play.

SKIP

HOUSTON TEXANS at TENNESSEE TITANS

One reason to maybe watch: Tracking Will Levis’ development has been enjoyable. The rookie is fourth among quarterbacks with 100-plus passes in deep-throw rate since Week 11. The operation isn’t always perfectly smooth but Levis is not shy about pushing the ball. I think it’s encouraging that DeAndre Hopkins has gone to bat for Levis publicly.

Hopkins is right, he’s played with a lot [of bad quarterbacks] over the years. We’re still in the discovery phase as it relates to the rookie passer’s long-term outlook but he’s fun and could earn a path to be the guy for Mike Vrabel and co. next season.

Stat you need to know: Texans’ routes run in Week 14: Robert Woods (25), Noah Brown (24), Brevin Jordan (24), Xavier Hutchinson (22), John Metchie (15), Devin Singletary (12), Dare Ogunbowale (11) and Nico Collins left with a calf re-injury after one route. How the Texans offense looked in Week 14 served as a great reminder of how good Collins and Tank Dell have been this season. C.J. Stroud’s supporting cast goes from really good with those two down to near Bryce Young levels with the injuries. Stroud may well end up missing this game with a concussion. If he does end up going out there, it’s a tough spot against a Titans defense that was hawking Tua Tagovailoa in the pocket last week. Should we get Davis Mills … well, forget it.

ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

One reason to maybe watch: Bijan Robinson eruption spot. The rookie back should have enjoyed a much better day last week but Desmond Ridder missed him in simply inexcusable fashion on a wide-open goal-line flat route. Robinson has earned 22, 23 and 17 opportunities over the Falcons last three games and now he draws a matchup with a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA per rushing and rushing success rate allowed. Arthur Smith is likely ready to saddle up his run game for a big day after the Falcons had a 2% dropback over expectation rate in Week 14, the second-highest of the season per Fantasy Life Utilization Data.

Stat you need to know: Jonathan Mingo ranks 10th in the NFL with 255 air yards the last two weeks. The problem is, Bryce Young is completing 41.8% of his passes in this span. The Panthers have been more intentional about getting their rookie wideout in favorable alignments and deployed on better routes for his skill set. But there are still a lot of prayer yards in those air yards.