What’s next for Yankees after Gerrit Cole’s injury news?

As the New York Yankees await news on the severity of Gerrit Cole’s elbow issue, the reality of the calendar is this: He will be unavailable for a potentially significant period of time, and they are going to need to identify someone to pitch the games he cannot. For a team with a payroll that is in the $300 million range, the options probably are narrower than you’d assume.

Without Cole, the Yankees’ rotation looks like this: Nestor Cortes, the left-hander who worked extensively in the offseason and has impressed the staff this spring; Carlos Rodon, who is coming off a horrific inaugural season in the Bronx; Marcus Stroman, the right-handed sinkerballer who signed a two-year, $37 million contract with the Yankees in the offseason; and Clarke Schmidt, who had a 4.64 ERA last season in 33 games and has had a mix of good and bad outings in spring training.

Replacing an ace isn’t easy; replacing arguably the best starting pitcher in the game — at a time the team is under more pressure to win than at any time in Hal Steinbrenner’s time at the helm of the franchise — is an even bigger ask.

The Yankees went 82-80 last season, their worst winning percentage (.506) since 1992. Manager Aaron Boone is entering the last year of his current contract. Even before the news of Cole’s injury broke, Yankees fans have been jamming the lines of talk radio shows to complain.

When Cole is healthy, he takes pressure off the others in the rotation and their relievers. He is arguably the Yankees’ most important player. Now, his prognosis looks to be anything from a month to a season. If Cole’s injury is catastrophic, this might help to explain the Yankees’ near-silence in the past 48 hours about their ace’s status.

After all, it was 20 years in December that Boone, set to be the Yankees’ starting third baseman, blew out his knee in an offseason pickup basketball game. At Cashman’s request, Boone initially kept the news to himself — Cashman knew that if the industry learned of Boone’s injury and its seriousness, he would lose leverage in any trade talks.

Cashman worked quickly and identified a new trade target a few days later — Rangers shortstop Alex Rodriguez — and arranged a trade. Depending on the severity of Cole’s injury, Cashman might be under similar pressure in these hours.

There are proven veterans still unsigned — most notably Blake Snell, who won the NL Cy Young Award last season, and former Yankee Jordan Montgomery. But the price the Yankees would pay for an expensive free agent — especially for only a few weeks without Cole, rather than a half-season or more — makes this extremely unlikely.

Earlier in the winter, the Yankees bid unsuccessfully on Yoshinobu Yamamoto and reportedly offered Snell a six-year, $150 million deal, a proposal that was rebuffed. The team then turned to Stroman, which might well turn out to be the one significant signing for their rotation. Because the Yankees are now spending above the highest luxury tax threshold, they would be taxed at a rate of 110% on any dollar they spend on Snell or Montgomery, in addition to sacrificing a draft pick. For the Yankees, a $30 million annual investment in Snell would translate to $63 million — or about $27 million more than they are paying Cole.

According to industry sources, the Yankees insured Cole’s contract, and depending on how long he is out, they will receive some financial relief that would help offset costs, if not the luxury taxes. But if Cole’s absence is short, that cost in dollars — as well as draft pick compensation — might be too onerous for the Yankees’ taste.

There are still trade options out there: The Yankees likely considered going after Dylan Cease, regarded as the best available starter on the market, before he was dealt to the San Diego Padres on Wednesday — but Cease’s asking price had always been high, and the Yankees had already given up several top prospects for Juan Soto. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber, a Cy Young Award winner in 2020, is another pitcher who has been discussed by teams as a trade target, but there are concerns about his health after arm issues limited him to 21 starts last season.

It appears likely, then, that the Yankees will hope that they can replace the innings that Cole can’t work in 2024 with homegrown starters.

On Monday afternoon, only a few hours after learning that Cole needed to have his elbow examined, a performance by one of the contenders must have felt like a consolation prize for the front office. Luis Gil, 25, overpowered a lineup of Phillies regulars over 3⅔ innings, and eight of the 11 outs he generated were strikeouts. With two strikes on Bryce Harper, Gil beat him with a fastball of nearly 100 mph. Aaron Boone, who earlier in the day had outlined the concerns about Cole, was deeply impressed. “Wow,” Boone told reporters afterward. “He was dominant. That was dominant. I kept turning, like, is anyone else seeing this?”

Gil is relatively early in his comeback from Tommy John surgery in May 2022. Gil was acquired by the Yankees in the spring of 2018 from the Twins in a minor trade for outfielder Jake Cave because they loved his arm and bet on his ceiling, despite apparent control problems. Gil made his debut at 23, in August 2021. In six starts that season, he had a 3.07 ERA, with 38 strikeouts in 29⅓ innings; he also walked 19. But after one start early in 2022, Gil needed an elbow reconstruction, and his recovery and rehabilitation took up most of the past two years. In two outings in Class A last year, he allowed five runs in four innings, with three walks.

The Yankees would love to continue to move Gil’s rehabilitation along slowly, but his Monday outing opened their eyes: If he keeps throwing as well as he did against the Phillies, the team will have to weigh its immediate rotation vacancy against a more conservative approach.

Will Warren is another option, and like Gil, he had a good outing Monday, allowing one run over three innings against the Orioles. Warren is 24, an eighth-round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2021. He advanced to Triple-A last season, with success. Clayton Beeter, a second-round pick in 2020, pitched well in Double-A last season (2.08 ERA) before having some struggles in Triple-A (5.07 ERA).

Also on the depth chart: Cody Poteet, 29, who has pitched 19 games in the big leagues for the Miami Marlins, generating a 4.45 ERA, and 30-year-old Luke Weaver, who started his career in the St. Louis Cardinals’ organization and has eight years of major league experience, including three starts and 13⅓ innings for the Yankees in 2023.

Whether the Yankees angle for a trade, or sign a free agent or opt for a young starter like Gil or Weaver to step in for Cole, there is a stark reality. At the outset of what shapes up to be a must-win season in the aftermath of the frustration of 2023, the Yankees will almost certainly be without the best pitcher on the planet.