Who they will play in first round

With a postseason berth seemingly slipping out of their grasp, the Houston Texans delivered one last bend-but-don’t-break defensive stand to close out a thrilling regular season. In doing so, they clinched the franchise’s first trip to the playoffs in four years.

Texans running back Devin Singletary scored a go-ahead touchdown with just over six minutes remaining to take a 23-17 lead on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, but Ka’imi Fairbairn’s extra point was no good, stirring anxiety among the Houston faithful ahead of a decisive Indianapolis possession. 

A third-down penalty on Maliek Collins kept the Colts’ drive alive near midfield, and they would have a first-and-10 just outside the red zone a few moments later. However, the Texans’ defense—which had been gashed by Jonathan Taylor all night—held Indianapolis’ star running back to nine yards on the next three plays. Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew and Tyler Goodson failed to connect on fourth down, effectively sealing a Texans victory.

With Saturday’s win, Houston has a chance to secure the AFC South title and a No. 4 seed with a Jacksonville Jaguars loss to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. If the Jags win, the Texans are locked into a wild-card spot as either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

Here is a look at the various playoff scenarios that could play out for the wild-card round.

The Texans are guaranteed to host the Cleveland Browns in the first round of the playoffs if they win the AFC South.

Houston will secure the No. 6 seed if the Jaguars win and the Buffalo Bills lose to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. The Texans would play on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in this scenario.

The Texans will land the No. 7 seed and be guaranteed to play every playoff game on the road if Jacksonville and Buffalo win on Sunday. This would set them up with a wild-card showdown against the Bills.

The Texans received key contributions from a variety of areas, but the quarterback-receiver duo of C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins paved the way for a monumental 23-19 victory.

Collins hauled in a 75-yard touchdown from Stroud on Houston’s first play from scrimmage, and he’d finish with a career-high 195 yards on nine catches. Stroud—who threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers on 20-of-26 passing—was 7-of-7 for 80 yards on the game-winning drive, which included a pair of clutch connections with Collins for a total of 37 yards.

Stroud finished his first NFL season with 4,108 passing yards, despite missing two games, becoming the fifth rookie in league history to surpass the 4,000-yard mark.

“We know how special Nico is,” Stroud told ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt when asked about Collins’ performance. “I’m so proud of him … the work that he puts in, how consistent he is, and I just really appreciate him being a good friend to me. But on top of that, you can’t just say it’s me and him.

“Our O-line did a great job today, our running backs did a great job, our tight ends blocked, and our other receivers did great as well. This was a team effort. Our defense, special teams came up big, so this is just an all-around win.”

Below are the NFL games on Sunday that will determine where the Texans end up in the AFC playoff picture.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Kickoff: Noon
Who Texans fans should cheer for: Titans
Favorite: Jaguars -4.5
What’s at stake: AFC South title, No. 4 seed and the right to host a wild-card game

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Kickoff: 7:20 p.m.
Who Texans fans should cheer for: Dolphins
Favorite: Bills -3
What’s at stake: Wild-card seeding