NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Stalemate. Impasse. Standstill. Whatever you want to call the awkward space occupied by the trade talks between the New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres for superstar left fielder Juan Soto, just don’t call them finished. While the sides seem to have cooled down their once-hot discussions, they’re bound to heat back up as the Winter Meetings begin Monday, according to a league source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to speak freely.
Whether it’s on the phone or it’s in a posh suite or at an overpriced restaurant or bar at the maze-like Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and A.J. Preller, his Padres counterpart, will re-engage over Soto, the 25-year-old lefty slugger who might wind up the best player traded all offseason.
Let’s look at where things stand:
The trade
The Yankees want Soto, who hit 35 home runs and led the National League in walks with 132 while playing in all 162 games last season. His .275 batting average, 32 doubles and 109 RBIs also led to a 155 wRC+ — a mark 55 percent better than league average. Since 2018, his debut season, Soto has been worth 28.4 fWAR, eighth-most in MLB. He’s one of the best hitters in the game, and perhaps the single best left-handed hitter, and Cashman has said it’s his goal to add a southpaw-slugging left fielder. Soto isn’t a good defender or base runner, but his bat makes him worth it. Also, Soto will be a free agent next season, and there’s virtually no chance he’ll sign a contract extension without testing free agency. Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Washington Nationals in 2022.
The Padres, the source said, are targeting young starting pitching that’s either MLB-ready or near it. The names they have suggested have been big-league arms Clarke Schmidt and Michael King, righties who are projected to be in the Yankees’ starting rotation next season. They have also tabbed swingmen Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, and top prospect Drew Thorpe, whom Baseball America ranked No. 96 overall on its top 100 prospects list at the end of last season. Other top Yankees prospects including Everson Pereira, a heavy-hitting outfielder, and Oswald Peraza, a slick-fielding shortstop, are figured to be on the table. The Yankees are particularly loathe to surrender King or Thorpe, the source said.
The Padres have also floated adding center fielder Trent Grisham to the mix, the source said.
The hangup
The Yankees have considered the Padres’ request — versions of an 8-for-2 swap — too steep, the source said. The Padres seem to be in salary-dump mode, and the team acquiring Soto would pay all of the projected $33 million he’s set to make next season via salary arbitration. Dumping the 27-year-old Grisham would add another projected $4.9 million to the pot. The Yankees appear to be one of just a few teams who could offer the Padres financial relief and high-level, quality starting pitching.
But the Padres also know that the Yankees have been under brutal pressure from their fan base to improve on their disappointing 2023 season in which they went 82-80 and missed the playoffs. Adding Soto might go a long way toward taking the heat off the Yankees. Watching Soto get traded elsewhere might ratchet the anxiety up a couple of notches.
The external factors
There are a few.
It might behoove the Padres to allow superstar free-agent Shohei Ohtani to decide on his next home before trading Soto. The teams that lose out on Ohtani could either redouble their efforts to land Soto or begin to look toward the Dominican Republic native as a consolation prize. For example: The Toronto Blue Jays have spoken to the Padres about Soto, and they’re also believed to be a serious contender for Ohtani. The Padres could play the Blue Jays against the Yankees — and vice versa — to try to net the Soto deal of their dreams.
San Diego’s most glaring need is starting pitching, with Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, and Michael Wacha free agents. The longer the Padres wait, the more free-agent pitchers could come off the board, leaving them with fewer options.
For the Yankees, who need outfield help and left-handed hitting, there are other options. None are as appealing as Soto. The team is interested in free-agent center fielder Cody Bellinger, the source said, but so far his asking price has been set prohibitively high. The Yankees could also look at Kevin Kiermaier or Jung-Hoo Lee. It’s unclear how the Yankees’ pursuit of Soto could impact their push for star Japanese starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, also a free agent.
The reality
It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Padres will trade Soto. If the Yankees and San Diego have gotten this far in negotiations, it’s clear that both sides see a hypothetical match. It’s far from unusual that these kinds of conversations would start with both sides asking for the moon and the stars before they return to Earth — or, more specifically, to Honky Tonk Highway.
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Daniel Miller is a sports fanatic who lives and breathes athletics. His coverage spans from major league championships to local sports events, delivering up-to-the-minute updates and in-depth analysis for sports enthusiasts.
