NFL coaches, execs split on which QBs Commanders, Patriots should take at Nos. 2 and 3

Just three weeks until the NFL Draft, teams around the league remain split on what will happen with the No. 2 pick.

The Washington Commanders are expected to select a quarterback at that spot, but which one? And what type of chain reaction will that spark throughout the rest of the opening round?

“The QB draft is going to be wild,” one high-ranking team executive said.

There’s been a long-standing belief USC quarterback Caleb Williams will go to the Chicago Bears with the first pick. Beyond that, opinions seem to change with the wind.

North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels have drawn the most attention of late, but Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy used an impressive pro day last month to solidify his offseason acceleration up draft boards.

The Athletic polled seven team executives, coaches and scouts over the past week for an updated evaluation of the QB class. Specifically, they were asked what they believed the Commanders would do at No. 2.

Three of them believed Daniels would be the pick. Two thought it would be Maye. One predicted McCarthy.

The last executive, who is not selecting in the top 10, didn’t offer a prediction but said a trade-down would be the wisest choice. The executive believed the drop-off from the second quarterback to the next tier wasn’t too steep, and the ability to recoup a haul of future draft picks would be too enticing to pass up.

This collective opinion is quite the contrast from a month ago when a poll of more than a dozen coaches and executives revealed Maye as the significant favorite to be the second quarterback off the board. Daniels got some love at No. 3, and McCarthy was tabbed at the top of the next tier.

So what’s changed? All three quarterbacks recently finished their pro days, and it sounds like McCarthy came out of them the biggest winner.

“J.J. killed his workout,” an executive said.

McCarthy has been viewed as a strong leader with good athleticism and a solid arm, though he wasn’t able to show it off much with the Wolverines. But he let it rip at his pro day, and teams are becoming intrigued by the way those tools will translate to the NFL.

Maye’s pro day got off to a slow start with a few missed throws, according to observers. However, they said, he called those plays again, hit them and finished hot. At 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, Maye has ideal size to match a Justin Herbert-style arm, and he’s got more than enough mobility to run a modern offense.

Maye’s leadership and character have been put on a pedestal, too. He’s viewed as a quarterback who can command an NFL locker room very quickly upon his arrival.

The question with Maye revolves around his inconsistent tape in 2023, which has been almost universally agreed upon over the past couple of months. There were breakdowns in mechanics and some throws that have caused concerns, and of course, some of those inconsistencies spilled into his pro day. One offensive coordinator came away wary of even placing a first-round grade on Maye.

Daniels’ pro day was viewed as good but not great, or it at least didn’t match the hype he’s gotten this offseason. Then again, the hype has reached disproportionate levels with Daniels, so that might be an unfair bar with which to measure.

Daniels caught teams’ attention with his drastic improvements since transferring to LSU a couple of years ago. If he continues that trajectory in the NFL, he could become the best QB in the class. Measuring at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds at his pro day, Daniels has elite speed and athleticism to break from the pocket, and he’s got more than enough arm.

But how will the draft shake out? There might be even more intrigue with this class than the group from last year when coaches and executives debated the merits between Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson.

For much of the pre-draft process, it felt like Maye would go second, leaving the New England Patriots with Daniels at No. 3. Of late, it seemed the Commanders’ choice wouldn’t be so simple, and the Patriots would corral whoever remains available.

“Either one is fine for (the Patriots),” a coach said.

The Patriots have played it perfectly to this point, heavily scouting the top quarterbacks while keeping the league on notice the third pick could be available at the right price. Whether they’re looking for a Godfather offer or simply weighing the cost of moving down in the right scenario — maybe they only like two of the QBs, or maybe their top tier also includes McCarthy and others — the Patriots certainly don’t want teams to assume they’re locked into No. 3 when rivals consider moving up.

The wild card is McCarthy. If, as one executive predicted, McCarthy goes second, TV ratings in New England could spike to historic levels on draft night. If McCarthy goes third, teams like the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders could be tripping over themselves to acquire the Arizona Cardinals’ No. 4 selection. With Maye and Daniels not long ago viewed as a pipe dream for teams outside the top three, a stratospheric leap by McCarthy could significantly adjust several teams’ draft plans.

The Athletic has reported for a month the Cardinals are open for business at No. 4, presumably for a quarterback-needy team, but the fifth QB might not have to wait too much longer, either. Oregon’s Bo Nix has been the perceived favorite at that spot, but don’t rule out Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., who has Yo-Yo’d from the third round to the first and back again more times than any QB in recent memory.

There’s a quarterback for just about everyone in this class. The top six all have different styles, strengths and weaknesses, which has created a ton of intrigue in front offices around the league.

Three weeks out, and there’s more mystery surrounding the 2024 quarterback class than there’s ever been.

(Photos of Jayden Daniels J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye:
Jonathan Bachman, Aaron J. Thornton and Mark Alberti / Getty Images